Smart Car Technology :: essays research papers

Brilliant Car Technology Answer A : The TravTek navigationsystem is introduced in 100 Oldsmobile Toronados, the visual piece of the framework is a PC screen. Through nitty gritty shading maps, it drives the driver through the town. The guide changes constantly, cause a PC associated with a route satellite, and with an attractive compass introduced, computes the quickest or most effortless route to your goal. When yellow circles show up in a specific spot on the screen, it implies that there is congested road here, or there has been a mishap on the spot. The PC gets this data from the Traffic Management Center, and it rapidly brings up an elective course. b: The driver collaborate with the framework through the alleged "touch screen". 7000 buisnesses in the region are as of now recorded in the PC, and you can bring up your goal via looking through a great deal of menus until you discover it, or on the other hand basically by composing the name of the road. at the point when the spot you need to go are enrolled you press the make goal button, and the PC programs a course, the second after the course shows up on the screen, while a voice clarifies it to you through the amplifier. c: The TravTek guides the driver through the traffic. The PC consistently knows where you are, and the route framework makes it difficult to lose all sense of direction in the traffic, except if you truly need to, and purposely make an inappropriate turns. It likewise manages you past car influxes and issues who may manifest around an mishap. In a town where you have never been, you will rapidly have the option to discover your approach to inns, cafés, sports fields, shops and significantly more, just by glancing through the different menus of the TravTek. d: The content unquestionably inclines toward the precision of the PC to the weakness also, misconceptions who happen between two people. The entry from line 54 furthermore, down plainly shows the perspective (quote): "...a fellow on the corner store who, requested headings, drawls: "Bee Line Expressway? Ummmm. I think you go up here around four miles and take a right, or possibly a left..."" The person at the corner store are portrayed as the clumsy imbecile who really have no clue where he is himself... what's more, his rules, unreliable as they are now, will presumably likewise be difficult to recollect as a result of Ummmm, I think, perhaps and or on the other hand... Answer B: Japanese drivers would now be able to discover their direction aimlessly, on the off chance that they prepare their vehicles with an advanced guide, who shows the situation of the vehicle. In light of the situation of

Interpersonal Conflict in Film Movie Review Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Relational Conflict in Film - Movie Review Example It is justifiable that the couple has experienced a horrible encounter previously and that it is common that they would be frightful yet not in such a response. The spouse began verbally communicating her generalized impressions of minorities individuals and carries her to speculate even her own maid. On account of the dread that Jean made in her brain about different races, she began accusing herself and venting her annoyance for others and her significant other. She let her steam off within the sight of others and requested her better half to consider all the more truly the threat that they are in. The spouse was shrewd enough to be quiet rather than her significant other anyway he likewise gave some bothering towards his wife’s disposition. In spite of the fact that he recommended that her significant other would better head to sleep, it would have been understanding him to have seen her to their stay with guaranteeing words that not every minorities individuals as not ever y white American are on a par with they

SIPA building tours are live! COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog

SIPA building tours are live! COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY - SIPA Admissions Blog Im  sure many of you are hard at work on your admissions applications, so Im  keeping it short and sweet today. Our fall tour schedule for  SIPAs building, known as the International Affairs Building (IAB), is now live. If youre in the area, I recommend attending one as its a great way to get the pulse of the area when you dont have time to join us for an information session or class visit. These tours are led by the admissions program assistants, so youll also have a chance to ask them questions about the program as you make your way through the halls.  Sign up here. If you prefer a campus-wide tour,  groups of fewer than ten people are free to tour the Morningside campus on their own.  Maps and other materials for self-guided tours are available online and in the Visitors Center, located in room 213 of Low Memorial Library  (M-F, 9 a.m.-5 p.m.). No registration is required to pick up a self-guided tour,  but  a current Columbia I.D. is required to enter all buildings except Low Library. You are welcome to explore any of the outdoor green space on campus.

Empowerment of Women through the Film Cleopatra Essay

One main message Cleopatra is presenting to society in the 1960s is the empowerment of women. Although Cleopatra is depicted in many different ways in other films and plays, the 1963 film portrays her as a ruler who tried to bridge gaps between men and women. She overthrew her brother’s power and exiled him and Cleopatra wanted to be seen as equal by both Caesar and Antony. This reflects the women’s movement of the 1960s when women mainly stayed at home and took care of children. On December 14, 1961, John F. Kennedy established the President’s Commission on the Status of Women. Led by Eleanor Roosevelt til her death on 1962, this board had twenty members that examined equality of women in school, at work, and by the law.†¦show more content†¦Although melodramatic at times, Cleopatra is in fact historically accurate. Joseph L. Mankiewicz, the screen playwright and director, wanted to be as precise as possible in his four hour long epic. However, t he most accurate depiction comes from Plutarch, a Greek philosopher, writer, and historian who eventually took Roman citizenship. He lived 45 to 120 C.E. and is well known for his work entitled Parallel Lives which was a series of biographies on Greek and Roman statesmen and military leaders. These biographies were set up as pairs in which a Greek and Roman were paired together. Twenty-three pairs as well as four unpaired leaders were all written about in which Plutarch described their triumphs and downfalls. Plutarch wrote about Cleopatra’s relationship with Caesar and also with Antony in the two Roman leader’s biographies. Nearly all scenes in the film are depicted in these biographies. He even received writing credit in the film due to the vast amount of information used from his accounts. Plutarch describes both Caesar and Antony as great military leaders, but Antony was the one who got carried away with Cleopatra. Caesar had a reasonable relationship with Cleopatra and they were equals whereas Antony was not rational and was too overcome by his love for her to think properly. Scenes from Cleopatra that were accurately depicted by Plutarch include Pompey’s head given to Caesar by Ptolemy XIII as a gift, the queen delivered to Caesar in a rug,

beloved Essay - 2338 Words

Beloved Toni Morrison’s, Beloved, is a complex narrative about the love between mothers and daughters, and the agony of guilt. â€Å" It is the ultimate gesture of a loving mother. It is the outrageous claim of a slave.† These are the words, of Toni Morrison, used to describe the actions of Sethe, the central character in the novel. She, a former slave, chooses to kill her baby girl rather then let her live a life in slavery. In preventing her from the physical and emotional horrors of slavery, Sethe has put herself in to a realm of physical and emotional pain: guilt. And in understanding her guilt we can start to conceive her motivations for killing her third nameless child. A justified institution as the 19th century emerged; the†¦show more content†¦Does she do this because she is selfish or because it need not be justified? Sethe’s love is clearly displayed by sparing her daughter from a horrific life; yet, Sethe refuses to acknowledge that her show of compassion is also murder. I believe that Beloved was a vividly irregular family saga that is set in the mid-1880s in Ohio. By that time, slavery had been diminished by the Civil War, but the horrors of slavery lived within the memories of those that were subjected to it. After President Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863, former slaves took on a new role in American society. This role was one of more significance and self worth than in slavery, but this class of freedmen was anything but appreciated. Without the manpower of the slaves, the souths agricultural society would fail, and without the agriculture there would be little money or food in the south. The passing of the Louisiana Black Code in 1865, confirmed that whites felt as if blacks could not handle the responsibility or the rights of true citizens. Whites thought they did not deserve these rights because they were inferior to themselves and simply less than human. These restrictions were so harsh; it is, as slavery had never ended. The blacks were free, however many of the Negroes everyday rights were abolished. Section 3, of the Louisiana Black Code states â€Å"No Negro shall be permitted to rent or keep a house within said parish.† Section 9 declares that â€Å"No Negro shall sell,Show MoreRelatedToni Morrison s Beloved And Beloved1376 Words   |  6 Pagesanother surprise to the story of Beloved. The addition of character Beloved conceals whole meaning Morrison tries to conduct to the readers. So far, character Beloved is portrayed as an innocent, pure, yet egotistic girl. Beloved also presumably the incarnation of Sethe’s dead baby, whose tomb is engrav ed Beloved. Morrison offers supernatural element in the story to create mysterious and spooky atmosphere, which raise curiosity and excite readers even more. Beloved is seen as the resemblance of Sethe’sRead More Beloved Essay593 Words   |  3 Pages Beloved, like many of the other books we have read, has to deal with the theme of isolation. There was the separation of Sethe and Denver from the rest of the world. There was also, the loneliness of each main character throughout the book. There were also other areas of the book where the idea of detachment from something was obvious. People’s opinions about the house made them stay away and there was also the inner detachment of Sethe from herself. The theme that Toni Morrison had in mind whenRead More Significance of the Ghost of Beloved in Toni Morrisons Beloved1376 Words   |  6 PagesIn Beloved, Toni Morrison frequently alternates between telling stories from Sethes past, to telling events in the present. Morrison introduces Beloved, who serves as the link between Sethe and Paul Ds past at Sweet Home as slaves, and the present, living in Ohio as a free family of three: Sethe, Paul D. and Denver. The character of Beloved allows Morrison to explain the experiences and characteristics of the three characters, and how they are reactions to their pasts. Up to Beloveds arrivalRead More Character of Beloved in Toni Morrisons Beloved Essays2510 Words   |  11 PagesThe Character of Beloved in Toni Morrisons Beloved Perhaps one of the most important issues in Toni Morrisons award-winning novel Beloved is Morrisons intentional diversity of possible interpretations. However the text is looked at and analyzed, it is the variety of these multiple meanings that confounds any simple interpretation and gives the novel the complexity. The debate rages on over many topics, but one issue of central and basic importance to the understanding of the novel is definingRead More Essay on Toni Morrisons Beloved - Symbol and Symbolism in Beloved1562 Words   |  7 PagesSymbolism in Beloved  Ã‚     In the novel Beloved, the author, Toni Morrison, attempts to promote a variety of different themes and ideas by symbolizing them in minor events and situations.   This symbolism is evident throughout the entire novel and is very crucial to the understanding and analyzing of the text.   A good example of this is the ice skating scene.   Morrison uses this scene to represent the slow, but consistent, deterioration of the family living in 124 and to foreshadow the ultimateRead MoreCry, The Beloved Country994 Words   |  4 PagesJohn Harrison in Cry, The Beloved Country While a subsidiary character in Alan Paton s Cry, The Beloved Country , John Harrison offers a glimpse into the attitude of the younger generation toward the black population in South Africa, one that seeks change but isn t always willing to exert the necessary effort. Who is John Harrison? People enter our lives all the time. Some become close friends. Others are here one day and gone the next. There are some with whom we rarely speak, but when weRead MoreBeloved by Toni Morrison622 Words   |  3 Pages In the novel Beloved by Toni Morrison, Morrison has created two very powerful characters: Denver and Beloved. Denver and Beloved are sisters, but in a sense, they werent always. It used to just be Denver and her mother, Sethe, that lived together in a house. That house was passed down to them by Denvers grandmother, Baby Suggs, which was given to her by a white couple who were out to help the blacks. Sethe and Denver were very content with the way things were. Sethe had a paying job as a cookRead MoreMemory in Beloved Essay1897 Words   |  8 Pagesemotional experience. Very often it is thoughtful that this neglecting and abandoning is the best way to forget. In Toni Morrison’s novel Beloved, memory is depicted as a dangerous and deliberating faculty of human consciousness. In this novel Sethe endures the oppression of self imposed prison of memory by revising the past and death of her daughter Beloved, her mother and Baby Suggs. In Louise Erdrich’s story Love Medicine, memory of death and the past is revealed carefully among the charactersRead MoreToni Morrisons Beloved Essays1058 Words   |  5 PagesIf ignorance is bliss, then why is it human nature to uncover the truth? In Toni Morrison’s Beloved, the character Denver uses knowledge to feed her craving in hopes that it will fill the void her mother unsuccessfully tried to satisfy with the blood of the past and too little milk. To understand these truths one must accept that Beloved is a physical representation of the past, Sethe embodies the present, and Denver exemplifies the future. Throughout the novel these three characters interact onRead MoreAnalysis Of Toni Morrison s Beloved1615 Words   |  7 PagesIn her novel Beloved, Toni Morrison utilizes a circular narr ative to emphasize the similarities, or lack thereof, between her characters. In Philip Page’s article, â€Å"Circularity in Toni Morrison’s Beloved,† he writes, â€Å"The plot is developed through repetition and variation of one or more core-images in overlapping waves... And it is developed through... the spiraling reiteration of larger, mythical acts such as birth, death, rebirth, quest-journeys, and the formation and disintegration of families†

Against for Profit Prisons Free Essays

GE 217 Against for profit prisons Prisons for profit have a different mission than public prisons, they must earn revenue. This means they have an inherent interest in ensuring prisons stay filled, even at the taxpayer’s expense. When a state government enters into a contract with a private prison company, it legally binds the taxpayer to pay the company a certain dollar amount per inmate per day. We will write a custom essay sample on Against for Profit Prisons or any similar topic only for you Order Now This has led to over incarceration and violence at private facilities nationwide. The relationship between prisons and private industry is not a recent innovation, but rather dates back to our nation’s origin. In the colonial period, incarceration was a rarely utilized form of punishment. Newly formed governments, unequipped to house criminals, looked to private jailers to provide detention services. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, via legislation or private contracts, some states leased prison labor to private enterprises. In other states, private organizations exerted complete control over the prison function. (Robbins, 1989) Prison overcrowding has evolved into a critical social problem. Per capita the United States incarcerates more individuals than any other industrialized nation in the world. Studies show that private facilities perform badly compared to public ones on almost every instance from prevention of intra-prison violence, jail conditions, and rehabilitation efforts—except reducing state budgets and adding to the corporate bottom line. To keep their gravy train rolling, private prison companies need a few things from state and local government. * Lots of people arrested and convicted (often of essentially victimless crimes) and given long sentences. This most heavily impacts young black males—about one in nine of whom is in prison, many for using or selling marijuana, or, to a lesser degree, harder drugs. Although whites have comparable drug use rates, their prosecution rates are dramatically lower. ) * Opposition to the decriminalization of drug use, which would cut sharply into prison industry profits. (As a result, it isn’t going to happen. ) * The continued criminalization and detention of undocumented foreigners. Louisiana is the worldâ €™s prison capital. The state imprisons more of its people, per head, than any of its U. S. counterparts. Which makes America first among the world? Louisiana’s incarceration rate is nearly triple Iran’s, seven times China’s and 10 times Germany’s. One in 86 adult Louisianans is doing time, nearly double the national average. And for African – Americans from New Orleans, 1 in 14 is in prison, parole or on probation. (Baker, 2012) The hidden engine behind the state’s well-oiled prison machine is cold, hard cash. A majority of Louisiana inmates are housed in for-profit facilities, which must be supplied with a constant influx of human beings or a $182 million industry will go bankrupt. Several homegrown private prison companies command a slice of the market. But in a uniquely Louisiana twist, most prison entrepreneurs are rural sheriffs, who hold tremendous sway in remote parishes. A good portion of Louisiana law enforcement is financed with dollars legally skimmed off the top of prison operations. If the inmate count dips, sheriffs bleed money. Their constituents lose jobs. The prison lobby ensures this does not happen by thwarting nearly every reform that could result in fewer people behind bars. Meanwhile, inmates subsist in bare-bones conditions with few programs to give them a better shot at becoming productive citizens. Each inmate is worth $24. 39 a day in state money, and sheriffs trade them like horses, unloading a few extras on a colleague who has openings. A prison system that leased its convicts as plantation labor in the 1800s has come full circle and is again a nexus for profit. In Louisiana, a two-time car burglar can get 24 years without parole. A trio of drug convictions can be enough to land you at the Louisiana State Penitentiary at Angola for the rest of your life. (Chang, 2012) For profit prisons often try to economize, but even the best run companies have come to recognize that operating with too small or poorly trained staff can spell trouble, and experts say state officials must pay close attention to the level of services being provided. Even if private – prison corporations succeed in cutting costs, there is unlikely to be sufficient competition in any given community to ensure that the savings result in diminished government budgets for corrections. There is a substantial likelihood that government contracts with prison corporations will fully protect neither the interests of the public nor the prison inmates. (Hogan, 2006) Studies show that private facilities perform badly as compared to public ones on almost every instance from the prevention of intra-prison violence, jail conditions, and rehabilitation fforts—except reducing state budgets and adding to the corporate bottom line. A 2004 report found that private prisons had 50 percent more inmate on inmate assaults and almost 50 percent more inmate on staff assaults. Private prison companies cut costs by hiring cheaper, lower skilled staff and fewer of them. The result is a vicious cycle where poorly trained and poorly disciplined corrections office rs are incapibable of adequately responding to prison emergencies. Prison safety conditions deteriorate, and more staff quit, increasing the turnover rate. There is also less than adequate medical care for inmates, in some extreme cases infirmaries are often closed certain times due to shortage of guards. Other areas to suffer in private prisons are psychiatric care, educational, and meals in order for the prison to earn a profit; these programs seem to get cut before other many others. It is my opinion that privatization undermines sentencing reforms, cost the taxpayer more money, and endanger the lives of prison staff and inmates alike. Offenders are incarcerated for reasons of their own making; I feel that having their freedom taken away should be punishment enough. They should not have to suffer anymore beyond that, especially for corporate greed. I strongly feel that prisons should be left in the hands of the public sector, which can operate them in a safe and true manner for which they were intended. Works Cited Baker, R. (2012, May 1). Briefing: For Profit Prisons. Retrieved from Who, What, Why, Forensic Journalism: Thinking Hard, Digging Deeper: Http:whowhatwhy. com brinkerhoff, N. (2012, May 17). Retrieved from Info wars: http://www. inforwars. com Chang, C. (2012, May 13). Louisana is the worlds capital. Retrieved from Nola. com: http://www. nola. com Hogan, M. (2006, June 2). Correction Corp. Breaks Out,. Retrieved from BUS. WK. ONLINE,: htpp://www. businessweek. com/investor/content/jun2006/pi20060602_072092. htm23id Robbins, I. P. (1989). The Legal Dimensions of Private Incarceeration. How to cite Against for Profit Prisons, Essay examples

Paul Lawrence Dunbar, Was The First Important African American Poet In

Paul Lawrence Dunbar, was the first important African American Poet in American Literature and the first poet to write of both a black and white audience in a time when efforts were being made to re-establish slavery. He was also "the first African-American poet to garner national critical acclaim"(43). During his short lifetime Dunbar became known as the "poet laureate of African Americans" (Columbus 45). Paul Lawrence Dunbar was born in Dayton, Ohio in 1872, to two freed slaves. Both of Dunbar's parents, who had been born slaves, had a love for literature. His father Joshua, had escaped slavery, moved to Canada, and returned to fight in the Civil War. It was after the war that he met and married Dunbar's mother, Matilda. Matilda and Joshua had two children before he passed away in 1874, (some sources say they may have been divorced). Dunbar had written his first poem when he was seven years old. It was through his mother Matilda, that Dunbar earned a love for literature, for she would teach her children the art of songs and storytelling (Draper 622). He was an excellent, well-behaved and diligent student, and graduated from high school with honors in 1891. Even though he was the only African American in the school, he was elected class president and delivered the class's graduation poem (Harris 107). Dunbar's initial open reading was on his birthday in 1892. A past teacher of his had given him the opportunity to give the convivial address to the Western Association of Writers when they gathered in Dayton, Ohio. It was then that Dunbar met and became friends with James Newton Matthews who wrote to a paper in Illinois admiring Dunbar's work. The letter was later reprinted in several papers across the country giving Dunbar local attention (Columbus 32). Since the death of his father seven years before, he had to work to support himself and his mother. After his graduation he could only find employment as an elevator operator. In between calls he would write poems and articles for various Midwestern newspapers while studying some of his favorite poets, including Shakespeare, Tennyson, Keats, Poe, and Longfellow (Harris 107, 108). Dunbar's style of writing was like that of none other during his time period, as thought by other poets. "Dunbar had developed a style that was double-voiced about race; seemingly carefree in Black dialect but more serious and brooding when in standard English. The perhaps best and most famous of his dialect poems was When Malindy Sings, featured on the front page of The Observer, published as a tribute after his death" (Young 125). In 1893 he took out a loan to publish his first book titled Oak and Ivy after some important literary figures began to take notice to his work. Through his writing Dunbar described his observations of society and the experience of his parents giving voice to the social problem of people in his day and became known for his proclaimed sense of black dignity (Draper 622, 623). Also in 1893, he was invited to recite at the World's Fair, where he came to know Frederick Douglas, the famous abolitionist who emerged from slavery to political and legendary fame in America. Douglas called Dunbar the most promising young colored man in America (324). As the demand for his poetry grew, Dunbar began to cultivate literary friendships that helped him publish more of his works (Columbus 32, 35). In 1895, Dunbar moved to Toledo, Ohio where with the help of Charles A. Thatcher and Henry A. Tobey, he began to recite his poems at nearby libraries and literary assemblies. They also funded his second book of poetry titled Majors and Minors. It was Dunbar's second book that bestowed him into national fame. William Dean Howells, a well-known literary critic and Editor of Harper's Weekly honored Dunbar's work in one of his weekly columns, thus making his name highly respected across the country (Rizvi 123). Although Dunbar wrote poetry in standard English the public preferred his poetry in dialects and that is what he mainly sold (Marshall 309). It was then that he married the African American poet Alice Ruth Moore in March of 1898 after returning from England. During his prime, generosity was showered on him and

Women in ancient greece essays

Women in ancient greece essays Early treatment of women in Athenian society can be best described as servitude. Women were treated differently from city to city but the basic premise of that treatment never changed. A womans main purpose was to establish a bloodline that could carry on the husbands name and give the proper last rites to the husband after his death. However, it was still possible for women to form life long bonds with their husbands and find true love in their arranged marriages. Women in ancient Athenian society were defined as near slaves, or as perpetual minors (The Greek World, p. 200). A womans life did not extend far from the home; it was thought to be their sole realm of existence. Although respected by society as higher than slaves, they were treated in many of the same ways. Like slaves, mothers trained their adolescent daughters as to what their domestic duties were. Most girls were taught to read at home, while the wealthier girls were educated in schools. They were taught important household skills such as: spinning, weaving, sewing, cooking, and other common household jobs. They were educated on basic mythology, religion, and occasionally musical instruments. Most of their time was spent in the household with other women, only leaving their home to perform religious duties. They were secluded from all males, even those in their family. Athenian women were kept at home, where they were taught the proper manners and duties of a desirable wife. Marriage was the inevitable goal to which her whole life tended. To remain a spinster was the worst disgrace which could befall a woman (Everyday Life in Ancient Greece, p. 82). However, this disgrace was seen as more of a reflection on her father who owned her until she was married. Although Athenian women were completely in charge of their households and slaves, they did not have much personal freedom. They rarely left...

The Carrot Seed Is a Delightful Classic Picture Book

The Carrot Seed Is a Delightful Classic Picture Book The Carrot Seed, first published in 1945, is a classic children’s picture book. A little boy plants a carrot seed and takes care of it diligently even though each member of his family gives him no hope that it will grow. The Carrot Seed by Ruth Krauss, with illustrations by Crockett Johnson, is a story with a simple text and simple illustrations but with an encouraging message to be shared with preschoolers through first graders. Summary of the Story In 1945 most children’s books had a lengthy text, but The Carrot Seed, with a very simple story, has just 101 words. The little boy, without a name, plants a carrot seed and every day he pulls the weeds and waters his seed. The story is set in the garden with his mother, father, and even his big brother telling him, â€Å"it won’t come up.† Young readers will wonder, could they be right? His determined efforts and hard work are rewarded when the tiny seed sprouts leaves above the ground. The final page shows the real prize as the little boy carries his carrot off in a wheelbarrow. Story Illustrations The illustrations by Crockett Johnson are two-dimensional and just as simple as the text, with emphasis on the boy and the carrot seed. The features of the little boy and his family are sketched with single lines: eyes are circles with a dot; ears are two lines, and his  nose is in profile. The text is always placed on the left side of the double-page spread with a white background. The illustrations found on the right side are yellow, brown, and white until the carrot appears with tall green leaves and a bright orange color highlighting the prize of perseverance. About the Author, Ruth Krauss The author, Ruth Krauss was born in 1901 in Baltimore, Maryland, where she attended the Peabody Institute of Music. She received a bachelor’s degree from the Parsons School of Fine and Applied Art in New York City. Her first book, A Good Man and His Good Wife, was published in 1944, with illustrations by the abstract painter Ad Reinhardt. Eight of the author’s books were illustrated by Maurice Sendak, beginning in 1952 with A Hole Is to Dig. Maurice Sendak felt fortunate to work with Krauss and considered her to be his mentor and friend. Her book, A Very Special House, which Sendak illustrated, was recognized as a Caldecott Honor Book for its illustrations. In addition to her children’s books, Krauss also wrote verse plays and poetry for adults. Ruth Krauss wrote 34 more books for children, many of them illustrated by her husband, David Johnson Leisk, including The Carrot Seed. Illustrator Crockett Johnson David Johnson Leisk borrowed the name â€Å"Crockett† from Davy Crockett to distinguish himself from all the other Daves in the neighborhood. He later adopted the name â€Å"Crockett Johnson† as a pen name because Leisk was too hard to pronounce. He is perhaps best known for the comic strip Barnaby (1942–1952) and the Harold series of books, beginning with Harold and the Purple Crayon. The Carrot Seed and Children The Carrot Seed is a sweet delightful story that after all these years has remained in print. Award-winning author and illustrator Kevin Henkes  names The Carrot Seed as one of his favorite childhood books. This book pioneers the use of minimal text reflecting the here-and-now of a child’s world. The story can be shared with toddlers who will enjoy the simple illustrations and understand planting a seed and waiting seemingly endlessly for it to grow. On a deeper level, early readers can learn lessons of perseverance, hard work, determination, and belief in yourself. There are numerous extension activities that can be developed with this book, such as: telling the story with picture cards placed in a timeline; acting out the story in mime; learning about other vegetables that grow underground. Of course, the most obvious activity is the planting of a seed. If you’re lucky, your little one will not be content to plant a seed in a paper cup  but will want to use a shovel, sprinkling can...and don’t forget the wheelbarrow (HarperCollins, 1945. ISBN: 9780060233501). Recommended Picture Books for Small Children Other books young children enjoy include Maurice Sendaks best-known classic picture book, Where the Wild Things Are, as well as more recent picture books like by Katie Cleminson and Pete the Cat and His Four Groovy Buttons by James Dean and Eric Litwin. Wordless picture books, such as The Lion and the Mouse by Jerry Pinkney, are fun as you and your child can read the pictures and tell the story together. The picture book  And Then Its Spring  is perfect for young children eager to plant their own gardens. Sources Ruth Krauss Papers, Harold, Barnaby, and Dave: A Biography of Crockett Johnson by Phillip Nel, Crockett Johnson, and the Purple Crayon: A Life in Art by Philip Nel, Comic Art 5, Winter 2004

Final Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Final - Case Study Example The three main functions of this system are closely interrelated as seen from recent designs of commercial buildings (David 12). The system provides ventilation, maintains pressure between occupied spaces and reduces air permeation. The process through which air moves to and fro the spaces is known as room air distribution (David 14). It is quite prevalent that modern building designs integrate the installation and control systems into heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems. In commercial buildings, engineers analyze the design of the building, and they specify heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems to be used in the premises. As for small buildings, the system can be purchased and installed. This is because code-conformity inspections and building permits regarding the system installation are mandatory for all building sizes. Therefore, the heating, ventilation and air conditioning industry has become a global enterprise (David 5). Some of the basic roles of the industry include system construction and design, maintenance, operation, manufacture of the equipment and sales. Also, the industry is used as a research and educational centre. In this system, heating is easily achieved through heating equipments or via radiation. Ventilation is also beneficial in this system. This is because ventilation sustains adequate mixture of breathable gases, hence; eradicating odor and contaminants from the occupied space (David 20). This ensures that the occupants of the space are productive and healthy. In this case, ventilation can be achieved through mechanical distribution systems which are powered by fans and natural ventilation. Lastly, air conditioning is enhanced through heat removal. This is normally achieved through radiation and convection which is achieved through the heat pump systems (David 29). As analyzed above, the

Planing and Forcasting Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Planing and Forcasting - Research Paper Example Key words: Forecast, management, planning, analysis, tools and techniques. Quality and performance. Introduction and scope of implementation: The two tools of planning and forecasting are not limited to any specific field or circumstances; rather they find their application in small scaled organization, and small scale projects, to large scale. Apart from the scale parameter, they find their application in different forms of organizations namely private, public, governmental, nonprofit, services industry, educational, planning commissions, human resource management nay they are broad in their scope and application and are equally effective regardless of the size or nature of organization. The need and realization for these two modes of operations grew further in the post world war two scenario when scientific management and other advanced methods of operations and businesses were introduced. Generic interpretation of the two terms: Apart from their technical details, specifications a nd usage in technical jargon, each of these have generic interpretation to their usage. Planning in any circumstances within the organizational ambit pertains to the organizing of activities or personnel. It is to plan and administer the scheme of actions, evaluating the availability of resources and man power (Caruth,et.al, 2008, 117), limitations of the organization and based on that make decisions that would allow for better outcomes with regard to the planned actions. Forecasting in the same parameter pertains to the foreseeing and assessing the situation and variables in accordance with the future prospect. It is the scientific and rational assessment of the upcoming events, activities, and resources. Forecasting allows for keeping the financial factor in check and preventing any increased spendings or prolonged activity time span which would go against the preplanned program. Modes of Planning and Forecasting: Both these functions may be performed in a formal manner or a regul ar in parallel on job activity. Informal planning of forecasting may not be as effective as the formally conducted processes in each category (Boyle, 2006, 8). Informal operations in these categories may result in extra resources inclusion and extra activities performance. Under the formally undertaken measures, the two work on separate lines, in a specific measure and allow better outcomes extraction. Forecasting: Within a managerial process and business, forecasting can be implemented in different categories. It may be implemented in the marketing sector, finance department, control processes, manufacturing and production activities (Stair et.al, 2010, 375). In the category of marketing, it allows for interpreting the future trends in the market and based on that the formalizing of strategy with regard to resources and expertise allocation. In the category of Finance management, handling of assets, determination of profit rates, interest rates evaluation and overall stocks values handling is enabled through the techniques of forecasting (Keown et.al, 2005). Similarly in the production processes, it allows giving an insight of the number of items to be produced, the need that would arise in long term, the costs that would be incurred in future against the present value of costs for a given process. Forecasting may be done in number of ways.

Pros And Cons Of Biotechnology

Pros And Cons Of Biotechnology The Convention on Biological Diversity signed on 5 July 1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (the Rio Earth Summit) defines biotechnology: as any technological application that uses biological systems, living organisms, or derivatives thereof, to make or modify products or processes for specific use. Understand the many disciplines that contribute to Biotechnology The main focus of biotechnology revolves around the use of molecular biology in the application of genetic engineering. Biotechnology encompasses many disciplines and relies on contributions from areas such as chemistry, computer science, mathematics, biology and engineering in addition to other fields such as economics and philosophy. Historic and current applications of biotechnology and its products Fermentation to produce foods Fermentation was discovered over 10,000 years ago and is widely considered to be the most ancient biotechnological discovery. Mankind was producing beer, wine, vinegar and bread using yeast. Lactic acid bacteria in milk and moulds were used to produce cheese. Modern food production still employs these processes but the cultures have been genetically refined and purified so that only the most desirable traits remain. Food preservation Preserving food through drying, salting and freezing was practiced even before anyone really understood why food spoiled in the first place. Louis Pasteurs research on the spoilage of win in 1864 was the first attempt to research food technology in a scientific manner. Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) PCR is a technique in molecular biology use to amplify a few copies of a piece of DNA through thermal cycling generating millions of copies of a particular DNA sequence. This technique is used for a variety of purposes including DNA sequencing in cloning, analysis of hereditary genetic diseases or even in the identification of genetic fingerprints used in forensic science. Microbial biodegradation The elimination of pollutants and waste from the environment is a concern that has intensified in recent years as humanity strives to find sustainable ways to cleanup contaminated environments. Bioremediation harnesses the natural ability of microbial xenobiotic metabolism to degrade and transform a huge range of compounds including hydrocarbons and metals. List and describe different types of biotechnology and their applications There are a number of jargon terms for sub-fields of biotechnology. Red biotechnology refers to biotechnology used in medical processes. Its applications include the production of antibiotics, vaccines and genomic manipulation to cure diseases. White biotechnology refers to biotechnology used in industrial processes. Its applications include using organisms to produce useful chemicals. The aim is to surpass traditional manufacturing processes by consuming fewer resources. Green biotechnology refers to biotechnology used in agricultural processes. Its applications include designing plants to grow under specific conditions or in the presence/absence of agricultural chemicals. One of its aims us to produce more environmentally friendly solutions separate from traditional industrial agriculture. Bioinformatics addresses biological problems using information technology. It plays a key role in areas like biotechnology and pharmaceutical sector. Bioinformatics also helps in the analysis of functional genomics, structural genomics, and proteomics amongst others. Provide examples of potential advances in Biotechnology Red biotechnology, especially in the field of regenerative medicine, is poised to transform healthcare. Advances in genetics, stem-cell research and cloning promises a golden age in medical care for the future. Genetics is the principle science behind regenerative medicine. Recombinant DNA technology is currently applied in producing vaccines to combat hepatitis B and human-protein drugs to treat diabetes. New protein drugs are in development to treat a wider range of diseases. It is speculated that genes can be used to stimulate the growth of new tissue, and create antibodies to either suppress or enhance the immune system. This can be used to treat diseases such as arthritis and various cancers in the future. Regenerative medicine, unlike chemical based drugs that simply supports failing or damaged organs or tissues, cures disease while having less toxic side effects. Cellular biology plays a major role in regenerative medicine. Human cells are currently being used in a variety of ways such as growing blood vessels and manufacturing artificial skin. Stem cell research offers even more promising treatments. In the future, adult stem cells can be harvested, cultured, and reinserted to heal damaged tissue, bones, nerves, and organs for those suffering brain and spinal injuries. Adult stem cells have limited flexibility as they are often difficult to locate and activate, this means they are unviable in the treatment of a number of disease and injuries. Embryonic stem cells are easier to obtain and their plasticity offers greater therapeutic benefit. Regenerative medicine promises many benefits. Better precision in diagnostics means earlier and more effective medical interventions. The Human Genome Project and ubiquitous monitoring will allow medicine to develop an appropriate response to the onset of debilitating and life-threatening diseases. Effective therapies will affect the quality of many patients lives. Diseased or damaged organs can be repaired or replaced completely. This will prove a great boon for the worlds ageing population as it improves the longevity of human life. Reflect on how it affects you and the world There is intense debate over the development of medical biotechnologies. Studies in genetics, cloning and stem-cell research have sparked unflattering headlines. How do we balance the great hope of treating currently incurable conditions such as Alzheimers with the moral cost that many argue is to high? Will embryonic stem-cell research and therapeutic cloning mean a callous commoditization of human life at its most vulnerable stage? Or are attempts to restrict development in regenerative medication condemning countless individuals to needless suffering? Will the benefits of regenerative medicine be distributed evenly, or will only the wealthy be able to afford it? What will be the social effects of a society populated by genetically enhanced individuals of varying levels? Does this prospect mean greater or less regulation of regenerative medicine research? Admittedly, these questions each embody a number of issues that are contentious in their own right. And each of them requires detailed analysis and scrutiny. Such inquiries are themselves shaped by a bigger picture of religious, moral, social, and political convictions. To what end are the current and future developments in regenerative medicine directing us? And how do we judge whether this end is desirable? Commoditization of human life Somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) is a technique to produce human embryonic stem (ES) cells for research or therapy. The technique creates human embryos that serve as sources of human ES cells. In deriving the human ES cells, the cloned human embryo (enucleated human egg transplanted with somatic cell nucleus) is destroyed at the blastocyst stage. This technique has many significant applications for clinical applications and medical research. Human ES cells produced from unfertilized egg cells transplanted with a nucleus from a human somatic cell can serve as a renewable source of cells with varied applications. These cells are capable of self-renewal and can transform into any other type of cell in the human body. Human ES cells can also be used for research into in vitro studies of normal human embryogenesis, abnormal development, human gene discovery and teratogen testing. Therapeutic cloning involves the destruction of cloned human embryos. The moral controversy arises depending on what status cloned human organizes possess. I feel that there are 3 main responses to this question. Human being and human embryo are essentially different Human embryos are essentially different from human beings and have no status. Bonnie Stienbock stipulates that cognitive status is not a matter of species membership but rather the ability to think, feel and experience. Early embryos cannot feel or experience anything. Thus, nothing you do to an embryo, including the act of killing it, can harm its interests because embryos do not have any interests. Human being and human embryos are essentially the same Peter Garret, research director of Life, an anti abortion group in Britain states that therapeutic cloning is simply a form of technological cannibalism. The moral reasoning being that cloning a human embryo to harvest stem cells would be equivalent to creating an individual with the eventual aim of plundering him/her for body parts. To bring it in line with Steinbocks view, species membership is the core determining factor when deciding whether a human organism has cognitive status. Respect for human life The third response presents that view that while human embryos are not equivalent to human beings, they are still a form of human life and are deserving of respect. Steinbock stipulates that the significance of and importance of embryos is symbolic. The respect that we confer to human embryos is analogous to that we accord to dead bodies. A dead human body does not have interests by itself but we show respect for dead bodies by burying them in accordance with our social or religious views. We do this because the dead human body represents a person who has existed. Similarly, we can argue that respect should be accorded to human embryos because of its potential to become a human being. I do feel that the development of sound bioethics depends on according embryos, fetuses or babies some sort of moral significance and importance. But as these reflections show, advances in biotechnology lead us to explore the philosophical issues regarding how to develop and apply new medical and technological possibilities. There are conflicts regarding the moral standing of early human life, issues regarding the meaning of personal identity and the potential to become a person. The challenges of the future will not only be scientific, but will require careful grounding in bioethics. Post humanism The development of superior diagnostic, therapeutic, preventive and enhancement techniques are sure to raise human life expectancy. Eminent researchers in the field of biogerontology such as Aubrey de Grey speculates that if accelerated aging syndrome such as Progeria can be fought as a disease, natural aging should fall along the same lines. Regenerative medicine can eventually thwart the natural aging process resulting in increased longevity. This is certainly within the realm of possibility, when all dysfunctional organs can continually be refreshed, we would have a substantially longer lifespan. If regenerative medicine is the first step in curing aging and subsequently, a declaration of war on human mortality, then an interesting issue is forced upon us. Should humans use technology to overcome or extend the limits of our mortality imposed on us by the evolution of human biology? When indeed these limits are overcome or greatly extended, then mortality is no longer a definitive feature of human life. In the absence of this defining feature, are human beings aspiring to become mere artifacts of our own engineering? I personally feel that much of the meaning and virtue in being human stems from our understanding of the finitude of mortal life. Much of the nobility embodied in human beings stem from procreation, a recognition that our future is shaped by and for our successors. Nothing good can come from continually extending the life of the progenitors. Preimplantation Genetics Testing and Eugenics Developments in reproductive medicine have provoked another range of questions, arising from the fact that techniques involving in vitro fertilization make it possible to examine and possibly alter the embryo prior to its implantation and development through fetal to the infant stage. This leads to what is known as the designer baby issue; imposing an ideal pattern on an embryo. The usual practice in clinics is to create a number of embryos in vitro and retain only those that meet the desired criteria. There are a number of situations where this procedure may be chose. It may be a matter of parents seeking to have a child free from a genetic condition known to be a risk in the family. However, groups representing the disabled claim that such selection disvalues disabled people. The same situation can be applied to selecting embryos by sex when the genetic condition involved is sex-linked. This would have broader impacts when sex selection is done for cultural or social reasons since this raises issues on the relative value set on male and female and the impact on the balance of sexes in society. Pre-implantation Tissue Typing (PITT) to produce a compatible donor for a sick family member takes the discussion onto new grounds. Many of them were covered in the film My Sisters Keeper and it raises questions about the exploitation of the resulting child and the violation of its own human rights claims. The spectrum of a new type of eugenics lies in the wait in any debate about designer babies. Scientists have rubbished the practice of eugenics as the convergence on a monoculture of ideal types may lead to elimination of traits that turn out to have evolutionary advantages. The issues that I have discussed have shown that there is a possibility of altering the embryos genetic structure either to eliminate some genetic diseases or, to promote sought-after characteristics such as intelligence or sporting potential. We are already screening various potential lives (embryos) in vitro to decide which should be given a chance at live and which should be allowed to perish. It is no longer the creation of live as we discussed earlier but the control, shaping and disposal of life that are at stake. This all leads to a brave new world of scientific eugenics. A variety of philosophers and scientists have argued for a developmental model of the legal status of the human embryo and foetus. The Roe vs. Wade decision held that pregnancy can be divided into 3 periods, corresponding to the degree that the foetus has been developed. The Supreme Court upheld that these periods correspond to an increasing standing of the emerging person in the human community. Yet the national debate continues and the lack of consensus about the status of the embryo has resulted in contradictory legal definitions in the US. Legality of embryo research varies from country to country as well. There is no clear guideline to the usage and treatment of embryonic material as there are too many fundamental questions that go to the root of humanity. Yet, I suggest that we apply the Kantian tradition of respect for persons and human rights that has been part of our history of civilized societies that balances. By all means, move ahead with stem cell research but let us be aware of all the issues surrounding it. Bioethics will continue to be faced with challenging questions, some of which we have not even conceptualized. In considered how to deal with moral issues, we should not narrow the range of persons who have moral responsibilities in determining answers. Both bioethicists and lawmakers must look to guidance from the public, not only from scientific and business interests. The public too have a special duty, which the media should assist in, to be well-informed in these complex matters.

Challenges in Nursing: Increased Childhood Obesity Essay

Modern nurses encounter many difficulties while fulfilling their role as a patient advocate, educator, and partner. One major task nurses are confronted with is the growing epidemic of childhood obesity as younger patients are being treated for serious conditions usually associated with adult patients. According to the American Nurses Association article, Fighting Childhood Obesity, â€Å"approximately 13 million obese children in the United States, and the rate of childhood obesity has [increased] from 14.8% in 2003 to 16.4% in 2007† (Jones, 2010, p.1). These numbers are alarming to healthcare providers such as nurses as this issue has grown from a common disease to an epidemic. Childhood obesity is a challenge for nurses due to cultural, socio-economical, and physiological barriers; however, overcoming these matters will take expert initiative from nurses as they educate parents and children of the importance of healthy living. Cultural Barriers When breaking down the barriers of childhood obesity, one significant factor is culture. Many cultures have different views on the determining factors of obesity. Penn and Kerr (2014) explain, â€Å"†¦ [childhood] obesity is a consequence of dietary neglect, with parental choices causing detriment to a child’s health and well-being† (p.20). Parents have a major impact on their child’s daily activities and overall routines thru unhealthy customs such as poor eating habits and sedentary lifestyles. As a result, these practices are superimposed on the child observing these type of behaviors. Many parents instigate behavioral factors in obese children by making their children eat everything on their plate. Children grow up with this learned behavior of eating unhealthy meal proportions, and it trends continuously through generations. Likewise, children who do not see their parents  actively engaged in physical activity tend to develop the same fitness practice . As parents acknowledge the risk factors for childhood obesity and become better role models, childhood obesity will become obsolete. Socio-economic Barriers Economic deprivation may pose significant problems on many different levels in a society where many families are living from one pay check to the next. The cost of healthy food is considerably higher than the cost of fast food, convenient meals, and school lunch. Fast food chains often offer dollar menus with foods that are high in fats, sodium, and MSGs. Grocery stores in low income areas have a poor selection of fresh produce and organic food, yet the same grocery stores are abundantly stocked with boxed and frozen meals full of preservatives. Federally funded school lunch programs are not sufficiently financed to provide a nutritional variety to children. Berkowitz and Borchard (2009) state, â€Å"†¦foods which children are routinely exposed shape preferences and consumption† (p. 3). This suggests that children will eat the foods that are available to them. Eating fruits and vegetables is a solution in decreasing caloric intake of fatty food thereby reducing obesity re lated issues. Physiological Barriers Physiological barriers associated with childhood obesity encompass aspects that inhibit a child’s bodily function and psychosocial wellbeing. Today many children prefer to participate in â€Å"†¦sedentary activities such as watching television/playing video games†¦Ã¢â‚¬  instead of going outside to play on the playground (Rabbitt and Coyne, 1995, p.731). Inactivity leads to weight gain and decreased vitality by slowing down the child’s metabolism. Weight gain reflects a child’s physical appearance, which is an element that influences a child’s self-concept. The way a person view themselves and how others view them are established throughout adulthood. A sedentary lifestyle as a child affects relationships with peers by causing bullying, social isolation, and low self-esteem. It is also a precursor to other illnesses that may last throughout life. Increased physical activity aids in overcoming the obstacles related to childhood obesity. Effects on Nursing and Nursing Interventions Childhood obesity has an effect on nursing by the increased number of medically treated children with serious conditions such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, and asthma thus creating a vast spectrum of challenges related to this epidemic. Nurses may enlighten parents in a non threatening way by identifying defining characteristics of childhood obesity. Information can be provided to bring awareness through sharing comprehensible literature and clear health related statistics. School nurses can actively advocate for healthier lunch options to be made available in schools and help children and parents understand healthy proportions by putting together nutritious selections. Nurses may promote exercise routines that children and their family can actively participate in by implementing strategies that are cohesive to the interests of the children. These interventions will reverse childhood obesity by incorporating a collaborative effort among nurses, parents, and children. Conclusion The rising epidemic of childhood obesity is an area of concern in American healthcare. Nurses experience direct effects of childhood obesity as children are being treated in school clinics, primary care offices, emergency rooms, and other healthcare facilities. Nurses face many challenges while educating patients on the importance of lifestyle changes that influence a healthier way of life. Cultural, socio-economical, and physiological barriers are challenges that must be considered in the process to overcome childhood obesity. The nursing role transitions from an educator to a patient advocate and finally a partner along with other stake holders such as parents, schools, communities, food and beverage companies, as well as government officials in the initiative to create an equal opportunity for all children to live a healthy life. This opportunity may be created through educating the public on the factors of obesity, maintaining access to affordable healthy foods, encouraging healt hier eating habits at home and school, and developing a child friendly exercise regimen. Since the fight against childhood obesity is a great concern, more work must be done in the effort to resolve this issue. References Berkowitz, B., Borchard, M. (2009). Advocating for the prevention of childhood obesity: A call to action for nursing. The Online Journal of Issues in Nursing, 14(1), 1-9. Jones, Trinna. (2010). Fighting childhood obesity: Taking a stand to control an epidemic one child at a time. ANA Issue Brief, 42(4), 1-3. Penn, S., & Kerr, J. (2014). Childhood obesity: the challenges for nurses. Nursing Children & Young People, 26(2), 16-21. doi:10.7748/ncyp2014.03.26.2.16.e398 Rabbitt, A., & Coyne, I. (2012). Childhood obesity: nurses’ role in addressing the epidemic. British Journal of Nursing, 21(12), 731-735.

Multicultural Competence, Ethics, Positive Psychology And...

Journal #2 – Week 2 – Multicultural Competence, Ethics, Positive Psychology and Resilience I did the reading before this class took place and the chapter was titled, â€Å"Multicultural Competence†, talking about multiculturalism is a huge topic especially right now with the social justice of ‘Black Lives matter’ and Donald Trump provoking stereotypes, racial slurs and prejudice, it really can have an impact on how people are helped, so I was very intrigued about the upcoming class. The class was started with a video of positive psychology, it explained the concept very well in the sense of breaking up and explaining components of positive psychology. The section that stuck out to me was, â€Å"learned optimism, the path to fulfillment requires considerable hard work, and there are few short cuts to sustain a happy well-being†. Personally this was what I needed to hear that day, our placement forms for next semester was due and I’ve been so frustrated with my placement this year, but this reminded me that to get to where I want to be this is the small ground work I need to do, to develop myself as an educator. Following this we watched video on Lizzie Velasquez, I did know who she was from talk show but I didn’t know she was such a strong motivational speaker. Her humor and passion for loving herself the way she is was refreshing. I say refreshing because I see girls everyday comment on their weight or what diet their trying now, or spending $200+ on makeup and too watch LizzieShow MoreRelated661 Treatment Plan Essay3705 Words   |  15 Pagessee Geoffrey as they can keep me updated on Geoffrey’s progress. †¢ How might you assess student strengths and seek to build resilience? 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Suicide Essay - 1368 Words

Its 8 in the morning receive an unexpected call. I try ignoring it and going back to sleep but it kept on ringing. So I get up to answer it and it happens to be my best friend’s mom from back country. She tells me son, something bad happened, I dint understand what she was mumbling, crying and spitting out fragments of words, but what got my attention was â€Å"suicide†. I figured something big must have happened; I speak to a different member of the family and find out that he committed suicide. Munjal was his name, my childhood friend living in India. I drop the phone from my hand, shocked, lost all my senses. The last thing I recall is speaking to him on the phone 1 week ago and how he was telling me all his problems he is having with†¦show more content†¦Sometimes when a member gives away all the valuable stuffs that could also be a sign even though it could mean that the person no longer wants it or he/she is relocating. When you are a family member its re ally hard to commit suicide but when an individual plans on committing suicide they tend to push the loved members away or create a fight that the death won’t affect them much, this is also one of the sign. But out of all these, the most common is depression. This is what happened in my friend’s case, depressed over loosing the person he loved. People thinks that he or she will attract more attention by dying than living, that it’s their road to fame. They imagine being a glamorous or romantic figure in their death. They fantasize about people crying at their funeral. What they have overlooked is the fact that she will not be able to witness the funeral, or to enjoy the attention they desired. Let’s look at how people commit suicide, often people use medicine since they are scared of the pain and there are some who does it physically. 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Decision Analysis Free Essays

CREATE Research Archive Published Articles Papers 1-1-1980 Structuring Decision Problems for Decision Analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt University of Southern California, winterfe@usc. edu Follow this and additional works at: http://research. create. We will write a custom essay sample on Decision Analysis or any similar topic only for you Order Now usc. edu/published_papers Recommended Citation von Winterfeldt, Detlof, â€Å"Structuring Decision Problems for Decision Analysis† (1980). Published Articles Papers. Paper 35. http://research. create. usc. edu/published_papers/35 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CREATE Research Archive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Published Articles Papers by an authorized administrator of CREATE Research Archive. For more information, please contact gribben@usc. edu. Acta Psychologica 45 (1980) 71-93 0 North-Holland Publishing Company STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS FOR DECISION ANALYSIS * Detlof von WINTERFELDT ** University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90007, USA Structuring decision problems into a formally acceptable and manageable format is probably the most important step of decision analysis. Since presently no sound methodology for structuring exists, this step is still an art left to the intuition and craftsmanship of the individual analyst. After introducing a general concept of structuring, this paper reviews some recent advances in structuring research. These include taxonomies for problem identification and new tools such as influence diagrams and interpretative structural modeling. Two conclusions emerge from this review: structuring research is still limited to a few hierarchical concepts and it tends to ignore substantive problem aspects that delineate a problem it its real world context. Consequently structuring research has little to say about distinctions between typical problem classes such as regulation, siting, or budget allocation. As an alternative the concept of â€Å"prototypical decision analytic structures† is introduced. Such structures are developed to meet the substantive characteristics of a specific problem (e. g. , siting a specific Liquid Natural Gas plant) but they are at the same time general enough to apply to similar problems (industrial facility siting). As an illustration, the development of a prototypical analytic structure for environmental standard setting is described. Finally, some typical problem classes are examined and some requirements for prototypical structures are discussed. An introduction to problem structuring Decision analysis can be divided into four steps: structuring the problem; formulating inference and preference models; eliciting probabilities and utilities; and exploring the numerical model results. Prac* This research was supported by a grant from the Department of Defense and was monitored by the Engineering Psychology Programs of the Office of Naval Research, under contract # NOOO14-79C-0529. While writing this paper, the author discussed the problem of structuring extensively with Helmut Jungermann. The present version owes much to his thought. Please don’t take footnote 3 too seriously. It is part of a footnote war between Ralph Keeney and me. ** Presently with the Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90007, (213) 741-6955. 12 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems titioners of decision analysis generally agree that structuring is the most important and difficult step of the analysis. Yet, until recently, decision analytic research has all but ignored structuring, concentrating instead on questions of modeling and elicitation. As a result, structuring was, and to some extent still is, considered the ‘art’ part of decision analysis. This paper examines some attempts to turn this art into a science. Trees are the most common decision analytic structures. Decision trees, for example, represent the sequential aspects of a decision problem (see Raiffa 1968; Brown et al. 1974). Other examples are goal trees for the representations of values (Keeney and Raiffa 1976) and event trees for the representation f inferential problem aspects (Kelly and Barclay 1973). In fact, trees so much dominate decision analytic structures that structuring is often considered synonymous to building a tree. This paper, however, will adopt a more general notion of decision analytic structuring. According to this notion, structuring is an imaginative and creative process of transla ting an initially ill-defined problem into a set of welldefined elements, relations, and operations. The basic structuring activities are identifying or generating problem elements (e. g. , events, values, actors, decision alternatives) nd relating these elements by influence relations, inclusion relations, hierarchical ordering relations, etc. The structuring process seeks to formally represent the environmental (objective) parts of the decision problem and the decision makers’ or experts’ (subjective) views, opinions, and values. Graphs, maps, functional equations, matrices, trees, physical analogues, flow charts, and venn diagrams are all possible problem representations. In order to be useful structures for decision analysis, such representations must facilitate the subsequent steps of modeling, elicitation, and numerical nalysis. Three phases can be distinguished in such a generalized structuring process. In the first phase the. problem is identified. The elements which are generated in this phase are the substantive features of the problem: the decision maker(s); the generic classes of alternatives, objectives, and events; individuals or groups affected by the decision; characteristics of the problem environment. This list is pruned by answering questions such as: what is the purpose of the analysis? For whom is the analysis to be performed? Which alternatives can the decision maker truly control? At this stage only very rough relations between problem elements are constructed. Examples include organizational relations D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 73 among decision makers, influence relations between classes of actions and events, and rough groupings of objectives. Products of this problem identification step are usually not very formal, and are seldom reported in the decision analytic literature. They may be in the form of diagrams, graphs, or ordered lists. Among the few documented examples are Hogarth et al. (1980) for the problem of city planning and Fischer and von Winterfeldt 1978) for the problem of setting environmental standards. In the second structuring step, an overall analytic structure is developed. The elements generated in this step are possible analytic problem representations. Besides tree structures, these may include more complex structures previously developed for similar problems such as screening structures for siting decisions or si gnal detection structures for medical decision making. Paradigmatic structures of alternative modeling approaches (e. g. , systems dynamics or linear programming) which could fit the problem should also be examined at this step [ 1 I. A creative activity in this structuring phase is to relate and combine part structures, e. g. , simulation structures with evaluation structures, or decision trees of different actors. From the candidate structures and their combinations an overall structure is selected which is judged most representative of the problem and manageable for further modeling and elicitation. Only a handful of analytic structures have been developed which are more complex than decision trees. Gardiner and Ford (in press) combined simulation and evaluation structures. Keeney (in press) developed decision analytic structure for the whole process of siting energy facilities. Von Winterfeldt (1978) constructed a generic structure for regulatory decision making. The third structuring phase coincides with the more traditional and limited notion of structuring. In this step the parts of the overall analytic structure are formalized in detail by refining the problem elements and relations identified in the first step. This includes a detailed construction of decision trees, event trees, and goal trees. Linkages between part structures are established, e. g. between simulation and evaluation structures. Decision makers and groups affected by possible decisions are specified together with events or actions linking [l] Although such structures alternatives to decision analytic in the remainder of this paper. structures should be considered, I will ignore 14 D. von Winterfeldt/Structuring decision problems them. Examples of this structuring step can be found in most decision analytic textbooks. This three step structuring process of identifying the problem, developing an analytic structure, and formalizing its detailed content seldom evolves in strict sequence. Instead, the process is recursive, with repeated trials and errors. Often the analyst decides on a specific structure and later finds it either unmanageable for modeling or non-representative of the problem. The recognition that a structure needs refmement often follows the final step of decision analysis, if numerical computations and sensitivity analyses point to places that deserve more detailed analysis. Knowing about the recursive nature of the structuring process, it is good decision analysis practice to spend much effort on structuring and to keep an open mind about possible revisions. The above characterization of the structuring process will be used as a format to review the structuring literature. First, the use of problem taxonomies for the step of problem identification is examined. Methods to select analytic approaches are then reviewed as possible aids for the second structuring step. Finally, some recent advances in formalizing part structures are discussed. * Two conclusions emerged from this review and motivated the subsequent sections of this paper: (1) Although structuring research has much to say about analytic distinctions between decision problems and structures (e. . , whether a problem is multiattributed or not), it has little bearing on substantive problem distinction (e. g. , the difference between a typical regulation problem and a typical investment problem). (2) Structuring research is still limited to a few, usually hierarchical concepts and operations. Emphasis is put on simple, operational and computerized structuring. Little effort is spen t on creating more complex combinations of structures that represent real problem classes. As an alternative, the concept of prototypical decision analytic structures is introduced. Such structures have more substance and complexity than the usual decision trees or goal trees. They are developed to meet the substantive characteristics of a specific problem, but are at the same time general enough to apply to similar problems. As an illustration, IIASA’s [21 development of a prototypical decision analytic [2] International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 75 structure for environmental standard setting will be described. Finally, several typical classes of decision problems will be examined and some requirements or prototypical structures will be discussed. Taxonomies for problem identification The taxonomies described in the following typically classify decision problems by analytic categories (e. g. , whether a problem is multiattributed or not) and they attempt to slice the universe of problems into mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets. The purpose of such taxonomies is twofo ld: to facilitate the identification of an unknown element (e. g. , a medical decision problem) with a class of problems (e:g. , diagnostic problem); and to aid the process of matching classes in the problem taxonomy (e. . , diagnostic problems) with an analytic approach (e. g. , signal detection structures). Thus, by their own aspiration, problem taxonomies should be useful for the early phases of structuring decision problems. MacCrimmon and Taylor (1975) discuss on a rather general level the relationship between decision problems and solution strategies. Decision problems are classified according to whether they are ill-structured or well-structured, depending on the extent to which the decision maker feels familiar with the initial state of the problem, the terminal state, and the transformations equired to reach a desired terminal state. Three main factors contribute to ill-structuredness: uncertainty, complexity, and conflict. For each category MacCrimmon and Taylor discuss a number of solution strategies. These strategies include, for example, reductions of the perceptions of uncertainty, modeling strategies, information acquisition and processing strategies, and methods for restructuring a problem. Taylor (1974) adds to this classification scheme four basic types of problems: resource specification, goal specification, creative problems, and well structured problems (see fig. 1). Problem types are identified by the decision maker’s familiarity with the three subparts of the problem. Taylor discusses what types of decision strategies are appropriate for each of these problem categories, for example, brainstorming for creative problems and operations research type solutions for well structured problems. Howell and Burnett (1978) recently developed a taxonomy of tasks 16 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring Problem Type Initial State decision problems Terminal State Transformation Type 1, Resource Specification Problems UnfamllIar Type 11, Goal Specification Problems Type III, Creative Problems Type IV, Well-Structured Problems Varies Varies Unfamihar Varies Vanes Familiar Unfamiliar Familiar Fig. 1. Types of problem structures (Taylor 1974). and types of events with the intention of assessing cognitive options for processing probabilistic information for each taxonomy element. Uncertain events are classified according to three dichotomies: frequentistic – not frequentistic; known data generator – unknown data generator; process external – internal to the observer. Task characteristics are complexity, setting (e. g. , real life us. laboratory), span of events, and response mode characteristics. For each vent/task combination Howell and Burnett discuss how different cognitive processes may be operating when making probability judgments. For example, in estimating frequentistic events with unknown data generators, availability heuristics may be operative. Brown and Ulvila (1977) present the most comprehensive attempt yet to classify decision problems. The ir taxonomy includes well over 100 possible characteristics. Decision problems are defined according to their substance and the decision process involved. Substantive taxonomic characteristics are mainly derived from the analytic properties of the situation, i. . , amount and type of uncertainty, and amount D. von Winterfeldt/Structuring decision problems 71 and types of stakes, types of alternatives. Only a few elements of this part of the taxonomy can be directly related to problem content, i. e. , current vs. contingent decision, operating vs. information act. The taxonomic elements of the decision process refer mainly to the constraints of the decision maker, e. g. , reaction time, available resources. The taxonomy by Brown and Ulvila incorporates most previous problem taxonomies which tried to define decision problems by categories derived from decision analysis. These include taxonomies by von Winterfeldt and Fischer (1975), Miller et al. (1976), and Vlek and Wagenaar (1979). To be useful for problem identification, the above taxonomies should lead an analyst to a class of problems which has characteristics similar to the decision problem under investigation. Unfortunately, the existing problem taxonomies are ill-suited for this purpose, because they use mainly analytic categories to distinguish problems. Such categories are derivatives of the decision analytic models and concepts, rather than characteristics of real world problems. For example, the analytic categorizations f problems into risky vs. riskless classes is based on the distinction between riskless and risky preference models. Analytic categories create more or less empty classes with little or no correspondence to real problems. For example, none of the above taxonomies allows distinguishing between a typical siting problem and a typical regulation problem in a meaningful way. I t appears that substantive rather than analytic characteristics identify real problems. Substantive characteristics are generalized content features of the problems belonging to the respective class. For example, a substantive eature of regulation problems is the involvement of three generic decision makers: the regulator, the regulated, and the beneficiary of regulation. To become useful for problem identification, taxonomies need to include such substantive problem characteristic Methods for selecting an overall analytic structure Most taxonomies include some ideas or principles for matching lems with analytic structures or models. MacCrimmon and attempted to match their basic type of decision problems with tive solution strategies, Howell and Burnett speculated on which tive processes may be invoked by typical task/event classes in probTaylor ognicogniproba- 18 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems bility assessment; von Winterfeldt and Fischer identified for each pro blem category appropriate multiattribute utility models. But in none of these papers explicit matching principles or criteria for the goodness of a match are given. Rather, matches are created on the basis of a priori reasoning about the appropriateness of a strategy, model, or a cognitive process for a particular class of decision problems. Brown and Ulvila (1977) attempted to make this selection process more explicit by creating an analytic taxonomy in correspondence with the problem taxonomy. The analytic taxonomy classifies the main options an analyst may have in structuring and modeling a decision problem. The taxonomy includes factors such as user’s options (amount to be expended on the analysis), input structure (type of uncertainty), elicitation techniques (type of probability elicitation). These categories identify options, both at a general level (optimization, simulation, and Bayesian inference models) and special techniques (e. g. , reference gambles, or Delphi technique). To match problems with analytic approaches Brown and Ulvila created a third taxonomy, called the â€Å"performance measure taxonomy†. This taxonomy evaluates analytic approaches on attributes like â€Å"time and cost measures†, â€Å"quality of the option generation process†, â€Å"quality of communication or implementation†, etc. Different problem classes have different priority profiles on the performance measure categories. Similarly, different analytic approaches have different scoring profiles on the performance measures. The analytic approach chosen should perform well on the priority needs of a particular problem, Brown and Ulvila discuss the ‘goodness of fit’ of several analytic approaches to a number of decision situations in terms of these performance measures. For example, they argue that a contingency type analysis (an element of the analytic taxonomy) is appropriate for decision problems that occur repeatedly and require a fast response (elements of the decision situation taxonomy) because contingency type analysis allows fast calculations (elements of the performance measure taxonomy). Several authors have developed logical selection schemes, which can identify an appropriate analytic approach or model based on selected MacCrimmon (1973), for example, developed a problem features. sequential method for selecting an appropriate approach for multiattribe evaluation. The first question to be answered is whether the purpose of the analysis is normative or descriptive. Further questions D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 79 include whether the type of problem has occurred frequently before, if there are multiple decision makers with conflicting preferences, and whether alternatives are available or have to be designed. All questions are of the yes-no type and together create a flow chart for selecting among 19 possible approaches. For example, if the purpose of the analysis is normative, if direct assessments of preferences (e. g. ratings) are valid and reliable, and if the type of problem has frequently occurred before, regression models or ANOVA type approaches would be appropriate. Johnson and Huber (1977) and Kneppreth et al. (1977) discuss a three step procedure for selecting a multiattribute utility assessment approach. In the first step, the characteristics of the multiattribute problem are listed, including discreteness vs. c ontinuity of dimensions, uncertainty vs. no uncertainty, and independence considerations. In the second step the evaluation situation is characterized on the basis of judgments about the task complexity, mount of training required for assessment, face validity required, assessment time, accuracy and flexibility. In the third and final step the profile describing the evaluation problem is compared with a profile characterizing five different generic assessment models or methods. The technique that best matches the situation profile is selected. For example, lottery assessment methods and models would be appropriate if the evaluation problem involves uncertainties, does not require high face validity, and allows for a good amount of training of the assessor. Both the taxonomy riented and the sequential selection methods for matching problems and analysis suffer from certain drawbacks. As stated earlier, problem characteristics used in taxonomies typically neglect substantive aspects o f the decision problem. Consequently, an analyst may choose an analytic approach based on a match with a spuriously defined problem class. For example, when facing a medical diagnosis problem, an analyst may find that some detailed substantive characteristics of the problem (e. g. , the way doctors process information, the physical format of information, etc. ) suggest a signal detection structure. Yet, as far as I can see, none of the above matching processes would directly lead to such a structure. Advances in formalizing structures Influence diagrams are a recent development in decision analytic structuring (see Miller et al. 1976). Influence diagrams draw a graphical 80 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems picture of the way variables in a decision model influence each other, without superimposing any hierarchical structure. For example, a decision variable (price) may ‘influence’ a state variable (demand) and thus ‘influence’ a final state (successful introduction of a new product into market). Influence diagrams have been conceived mainly as an initial pre-structuring tool to create a cognitive map of a decision maker’s or expert’s view of a decision problem. In the present stage influence diagrams are turned into hierarchical structures and analyzed with traditional tools. But research is now underway at SRI Internatio nal on the use of influence diagrams directly in EV or EU computations. Another generalization of the tree approach is Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) developed, for example, in Warfield (1974) and Sage (1977). In interpretative structural modeling, matrix and graph heory notions are used to formally represent a decision problem. First, all elements of the problem are listed and an element by element matrix is constructed. The structure of the relationships between elements is then constructed by filling in the matrix with numerical judgments reflecting the strength of the relationship, or by simply making O-l judgments about the existence/non-existence of a relation. Computer programs can then be used to convert the matrix into a graph or a tree that represents the problem. Influence diagrams, value trees, decision trees, and inference trees can all be thought of as special cases of ISM. For example, in value tree construction, the analyst may begin with a rather arbitrary collection of value relevant aspects, attributes, outcomes, targets and objectives. Using alternative semantic labels for the relationships between these elements (e. g. , ‘similar’, ‘part of’), an element by element matrix can be filled. Finally, the analyst can explore whether a particular relational structure leads to useful goal tree structure. Besides these generalizations of traditional hierarchical structuring tools, several refinements of special structuring techniques have been suggested, particularly for evaluation roblems. Keeney and Raiffa (1976) devoted a whole chapter to the problem of structuring a value tree. They suggest a strategy of constructing a value tree by beginning with general objectives and disaggregating by using a pure explication logic (i. e. , what is meant by this general objective? ). This approach has previously been advocated by Miller (1 970) and others. Mannheim and Hall (1967) suggest in addition the possibility of disaggregating general D. van Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 81 objectives according to a means-ends logic (how can this general objective be achieved? ). Other disaggregation logics (problem oriented, process oriented, etc. ) could be analyzed in the ISM context. There are a number of papers that suggest more empirical or synthetic approaches to value tree construction. Of particular interest is a repertory grid technique described by Humphreys and Humphreys (1975) and Humphreys and Wisuda (1979). In this procedure similarity and dissimilarity judgments are used to span the value dimensions of alternatives. Several computer aids have been developed recently to aid decision makers or experts in structuring decision problems. Some of these are discussed in Kelly ( 1978), and Humphreys (1980). These aids typically rely on empty structuring concepts (decison trees, value trees, inference trees, or influence diagrams) and they guide the decision maker/expert in the analytic formulation of his/her problem. Special aids are OPINT for moderately complex problems which can easily be formulated into a decision tree or matrix structure, the decision triangle aid for sequential decision problems with a focus on changing probabilities, and EVAL for multiattribute utility problems (Kelly 1978). In addition to these structuring and assessment aids, there are now computerized aids under development xploiting the idea of influence diagrams and fuzzy set theory. Influence diagrams, ISM, and computer aids are indicative of a trend in structuring research and perhaps in decision analysis as a whole. This trend turns the fundamentally empty structures of decision trees, goal trees, and inference trees into more operational, computerized elicitation tools, without adding problem substance. T here are clear advantages to such an approach: a wide range of applicability, flexibility, user involvement, speed, limited training, and feedback, to name only a few. It also reduces the demands on the decision analyst’s time. There is, of course, the other extreme, the prestructured, precanned problem specific version of decision analysis applicable to essentially identical situations. A military example is Decisions and Designs Inc. % SURVAV model (Kelly 1978) which applies to routing decisions for ships to avoid detections by satellites. Such a structure and model can routinely be implemented with almost no additional training. In turn it gives up generalizability. Neither extreme is totally satisfactory. Empty general structures must consider each problem from scratch. Substantive specific struc- 82 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring ecision problems tures have limited generalizability. The middleground of problem driven but still generalizable structures and models needs to be filled. Problem taxonomies may help here by identifying generic classes of problems. But as was discussed earlier, existing taxonomies are ill equipped for this task since they neglect substantive problem features. The question of filling in the middleground between ‘too general’ structures and ‘too specific’ structures thus becomes a question of searching for generalizable content features of problems that identify generic classes of decisions. These generic classes can then be modelled and structured by â€Å"prototypical decision analytic structures† which are specific enough to match the generalizable problem features and general enough to transfer easily to other problems of the same class. At the present stage of research this search process will necessarily be inductive because too little is known about problem substance to develop a problem driven taxonomy and matching analytic structures. An inductive research strategy may attempt to crystallize the generalizable features of a specific application, . or compare a number of similar applications (e. . , with siting problems), or simply use a phenomenological approach to delineate problem classes in a specific application area (e. g. , regulation). In the following two sections some possibilities for developing prototypical decision analytic structures will be discussed. An example of developing a prototypical structure The following example describes the struct uring process in the development of a decision aiding system for environmental standard setting and regulation. The work was performed as part of IIASA’s (see fn. 2) standard setting project (see von Winterfeldt et al. 1978), which had oth descriptive and normative intentions (how do regulators presently set standards? how can analytic models help in the standard setting process? ). Because of this wide approach of the standard setting project, the research group was not forced to produce workable models for specific decision problems quickly. Consequently, its members could afford and were encouraged to spend a substantial amount of time on structuring. Inputs into the structuring process were: – retrospective case studies of specific mental protection agencies; standard processes of environ- national Railway Corporation energylevelmeasure 3 measurefor aeroplanenoise 1 Japanese dB’ ‘SO†, AT SOURCE RULES ROUTING USE SCHEMES SCHEMES LAND Fig. 2. Regul atory alternatives for Shinkansen noise pollution. IMPLEMENTATION AND MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENT /I ALTERNATIVE OF HOUSE IN HOUSE IN FRONT lMldB(A) WCPNLl MEAS†6iiA~â€Å" 30 – di) MEASURED LEO’ EQUIP- TION FICA- SPECI- MENT SPE:D CONTROL RES+RlCT TIMES OPERATION 84 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems – previous models suggested for standard setting; – field studies of two ongoing standard setting processes (oil pollution and noise standards). In addition, the structuring process benefited much from continuing discussions with leading members of environmental agencies in the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan and the United States. Although the structuring effort was geared towards decision analysis, substantial inputs were given by an environmental economist (D. Fischer), an environmental modeller (S. Ikeda), a game theorist (E. Hopfinger), and two physicists (W. Hafele and R. Avenhaus), all members of IIASA’s standard setting research team. The overall question was: how can standard setting problems best be formulated nto a decision analytic format and model such that the model is specific enough to capture the main features of a particular standard setting problem and, at the same time, general enough to apply to a variety of such problems? In other words, what is a prototypical decision analytic structure for standard setting? Since the regulator or regulatory agency was presumed to be the main client of such models, the initial structuring focussed on regulatory alternatives and objectives. In one attempt a wide but shallow alternative tree was conceived which included a variety of regulatory ptions ranging from emission standards, land use schemes, to direct interventions. An example for noise pollution standards is presented in fig, 2. Coupled with an appropriate tree of regulatory objectives, a decision analysis could conceivably be performed by evaluating each alternative with a simple MAU procedure. A possible value tree is presented in fig. 3 for the same noise pollution problem. This simple traditional structure was rejected since regulators seldom have to evaluate such a wide range of alternatives and because it does not capture the interaction between the regulators and the regulated. Also, regulators are much concerned about monitoring and implementation of standards, an aspect which a simple MAU structure does not address. The second structure was a narrow but deep decision tree, exemplified in fig. 4 for an oil pollution problem. In addition to the regulator’s alternatives, this tree includes responses of the industry to standards, possible detection of standards violations, and subsequent sanctions. This structure was geared at fine tuning the regulators’ definitions of D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 85 of hospitals, schools, retwement homes MINIMIZE f residential life DISTURBANCE other / EEggF M,NIM,zE HEALTH Hearing EFFECTS PsychologIcal Synergetic (aggravation of existing illness) Investment for pollution equipment MINIMIZE COST ~—– Operation of pollution eqwpment RAILWAY CORP. OBJECTIVES Speed MAXIMIZE SERVICE - Aeliablllty ClXlllOrt wth mtemational regulation CONSISTENCY OF REGULATION with other national â⠂¬Å"cise standards (car, mr. other trams) POLITICAL OBJECTIVES -/ Enwonmental policy AGREEMENT POLICY WITH GOVERNMENT Transportation policy t Ewnomtc growih policy Fig. 3. Regulatory objectives for noise pollution control. he standard level (maximum emission, etc. ) and monitoring and sanction schemes, and to assessing environmental impacts. The structure is specific in terms of the regulatory alternatives. But by considering industry responses as random events, and by leaving out responses of environmental groups, it fails to address a major concern of regulatory decision making. The third structure was a three decision maker model, in which the regulator, the industry/developer and the environmentalists/impactees are represented by separate decision analytic models (see von Winterfeldt 1978). A signal detection type model links the regulator’s decision through possible detections of violations and sanction schemes to the the industry model. An event tree of pollution generating events and effects links the developer’s decisions to the impactee model (see fig. 5). The model can be run as follows: the regulator’s alternatives are left 86 EPA average UK aver,, UK maximum Norway average DEFINITIONS OF OIL EMISSION STANDARDS parts per million ofoil No pollution – Grawty Separator cugated Plate Inter- equipment Gas Flotation Filters ceptrr n ob STANDARD LEVEL in watt r ofoil POLLUTION EQUIPMENT PERFORMANCE o00 patis per milhon in water n First vidabon of No udat#on of standard occurs at tulle DETECTION STATES standard dunng all opemons n t POLLUTION EQUIPMENT DECISION BY THE OIL INDUSTRY PENALTY No pdlution equipment Gravity separator Gas Flotatux corrugated Plate bltw- Pais Filters EQUIPMENT PERFORMANCE per million n Second wdation POLLUTION EQUIPME NT DECISION BY THE OIL INDUSTRY No more vidations DETECTION STATES Find eflects~ on environment (pdlution levels) FINAL EFFECTS – industry (cost) – regulatlx (political) Fig. 4. Segment of a decision tree for setting oil pollution standards. A standard is usually defined by the number of samples to be taken, how many samples form an average, and how many exemptions from a violation are allowed. For example, the EPA average definition is as follows: four samples are to be taken daily, the average of the four samples may not exceed the standard level (e. g. , 50 ppm) more than twice during any consecutive 30 day period. 87 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems REGULATORY 1 DECISION MODEL I U R (0 1 DETECTION OF REGULATION VIOLATION DEVELOPER – SANCTIONS POLLUTION GENERATING EVENTS I IMPACTEE DECISION MODEL POLLUTION EFFECTS Fig. 5. Schematic representation of the regulator-developer-impactee model. 1: variable standard of the regulator d(r): expected utility maximizing treatment decision of the developer a[d(r)]: expected utility maximizing decision of the impactees variable. The developer’s response is optimized in terms of minimizing expected investment, operation, and detection costs or maximizing equivalent expected utilities. Finally, the impactees are assumed to maximize their expected utility conditional on the regulator’s and the developer’s decision. At this point the model stops. The structure only provides for a Pareto optimality analysis of the three expected utilities accruing to the generic decision units. This model allows some detailed analyses of the probabilities and value aspects of the standard setting problem, and it proved feasible in a pilot application to chronic oil discharge standards (see von Winterfeldt et al. 1978). Regulators who were presented with this model, con- 88 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems REGULATOR’S CHOICE Fig. 6. Game theoretic structure of the regulation I problem. sidered it meaningful, and it offered several insights into the standard setting problematique. Yet, there was a feeling among analysts and regulators that the static character of the model and the lack of feedback loops required improvement. The final structure considered was a game theoretic extension of the three decision maker model. The structure of the game theoretic model is presented in fig. 6. In this model the standard setting process in explicitly assumed to be dynamic, and all feedbacks are considered. In addition, transitions from one stage to another are probabilistic. The model was applied in a seven stage version in a pilot study of noise standard setting for rapid trains (Hapfinger and von Winterfeldt 1978). The game theoretic model overcomes the criticisms of the static decision analytic model, but in turn it gives up the possibility for fine tuning and detailed modeling of trade-offs and probabilities. Considering such aspects in detail would have made the running of the model impossible. Therefore, relatively arbitrary (linear) utility functions and simple structures of transition probabilities have to be assumed. Although the appropriateness of the different structures was not explicitly addressed in this study, two main criteria come to mind when judging structures: representativeness of the problem and manageability for further analysis. Each of these criteria can be further broken down. For example, representativeness includes judgments about the adequacy of the structural detail, and coverage of important problem aspects. The overall conclusions of many discussion with regulators, analysts, D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 89 industry representatives, and the results of the pilot applications led us to accept the third structure as a prototypical decision analytic structure for relatively routine emission standard setting problems. The model is presently considered for further applications in emission tandard setting and an extension to safety standards will be explored. Towards a kit of prototypical decision analytical structures Not every decision analysis can afford to be as broad and time consuming as the previous study. Decision analysis usually has a much more specific orientation towards producing a decision rather than developing a generic structure. Still I think that it would be helpful i f analysts were to make an effort in addressing the question of generalizability when modeling a specific problem, and in extracting those features of the problem and the model that are transferable. Such an inductive pproach could be coupled with more research oriented efforts and with examinations of similarities among past applications. Such an approach may eventually fill the middleground between too specific and too general models and structures. But rather than filling this middleground with analytically specific but substantively empty structures and models, it would be filled with prototypical structures and models such as the above regulation model, more refined signal detection models, siting models, etc. In the following, four typical classes of decision problems (siting, contingency planning, budget allocation, and regulation) are examined nd requirements for prototypical structures for these problems are discussed. Facility siting clearly is a typical decision problem. Keeney and other decision analysts have investigated this problem in much detail and in a variety of contexts (see the examples in Keeney and Raiffa 1976). A typical aspect of such siting problems is sequential screening from candidate areas to possible sites, to a preferred set, to final site specific evaluations. Another aspect is the multiobjective nature with emphasis on generic classes of objectives: investment and operating cost, economic benefits, environmental impacts, social impacts, and political onsiderations. Also, the process of organizing, collecting, and evaluating information is similar in many siting decisions. Thus, it should be possible to develop a prototypical structure for facility siting decisions, 90 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems simply by assembling the generalizable features of past applications [ 31. Contingency planning is another recurring and typical problem. Decision and Design Inc. addressed this problem in the military context, bu t it also applies to planning for actions in the case of disasters such as Liquid Natural Gas plant explosions or blowouts from oil platforms. Substantive aspects that are characteristic of contingency planning are: strong central control of executive organs, numerous decisions have to be made simultaneously, major events can drastically change the focus of the problem, no cost or low cost information comes in rapidly, and organizational problems may impede information flows and actions. Although, at first glance, decision trees seem to be a natural model for contingency planning, a prototypical decision model would require modifying a strictly sequential approach to accommodate these aspects. For example, the model should be flexible enough to allow for the ‘unforeseeable’ (rapid capacity to change the model structure), it should have rapid information updating facilities without overstressing the value of information (since most information is free), and it should attend to fine tuning of simultaneous actions and information interlinkages. Budget allocation to competing programs is another typical problem. In many such problems different programs attempt to pursue similar objectives, and program mix and balance has to be considered besides the direct benefits of single programs. Another characteristic of budgeting decisions is the continuous nature of the decision variable and the constraint of the total budget. MAU looks like a natural structure for budget allocation decision since it can handle the program evaluation aspect (see Edwards et al. 1976). But neither the balance issue nor the constrained and continuous characteristics of the budget are appropriately adressed by MAU. A prototypical decision analytic structure would model an evaluation of the budget apportionment, or the mix of programs funded at particular levels. Such a structure would perhaps exploit dependencies or independencies among programs much like independence assumption for preferences. Regulation covers a class of decision problems with a number of recurrent themes: three generic groups involved (regulators, regulated, [,3] I believe that. Keeney’s forthcoming book on siting energy facilities is a major step in that direction. Of. course, it could also be a step in the opposite direction. Or in no direction at all (see also first asterisked footnote at the beginning of the article). D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 91 beneficiaries of regulation), importance f monitoring and sanction schemes, usually opposing objectives of the regulated and the benefrciaries of regulation, and typically highly political objectives of the regulator. In the previous section, the more specific regulation problem of standard setting was discussed, and a prototypical decision analytic structure was suggested. A decision analytic structure for regulation in general can build on the main features of the standard setting model. This list could be extended to include private investment decisions, product mix selection, resource development, diagnostic problems, etc. But the four examples hopefully re sufficient to demonstrate how prototypical decision analytic structuring can be approached in general. In my opinion, such an approach to structuring could be at least as useful for the implementation of decision analysis as computerization of decision models. Besides the technical advantages of trahsferability, prototypical decision analytic structures would serve to show that decision analysts are truly concerned about problems. Today decision analysis books have chapters such as ‘simple decisions under uncertainty’ and ‘multiattribute evaluation problems’. I am looking forward to chapters such as ‘siting industrial acilities’, ‘pollution control management’, an d ‘contingency planning’. References Brown, R. V. and J. W. Ulvila, 1977. Selecting analytic approaches for decision situations. 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