Honors Anatomy And Physiology Cystic Fibrosis - 1829 Words

Rachael Ialacci Dr. Margevicius Honors Anatomy and Physiology Disease Project - Cystic Fibrosis 15 December 2016 Cystic fibrosis is a rare, genetic, incurable disease. It affects cells that produce mucus, sweat, and digestive juices, it cause them to be thick and sticky, blocking airways, tubes, ducts, and passageways. The severity of symptoms depends on the person. Common include, cough, shortness of breath, wheezing, exercise intolerance, lung infections(pneumonia and bronchitis), inflamed nasal passages, stuff nose, inability to gain weight and grow, excessive salt in sweat, and foul-smelling, fatty stools, and severe constipation. Diagnostic tests for CF include a screening at birth(blood test), a sweat test(levels of salt), and a genetic test(chromosome 7). Cystic fibrosis is particularly abundant in European-Americans. It is also the most common in the United States. More than 75% of people with CF were diagnosed by age 2. Men and women are both equally affected. Over 30,000 people are living with CF in the United States, and over 70,000 worldwide. Between one and two people die everyday due to cystic fibrosis. The hope is for CF to become less prevalent due to the finding of a cure. The fundamental causes of cystic fibrosis is a defective, hereditary gene that one must receive from both parents. The CFTR gene, located on chromosome 7. Since cystic fibrosis is a genetic disease, the only way to cure it would be to fix the DNA that went astray. Currently,

Decision Analysis Free Essays

CREATE Research Archive Published Articles Papers 1-1-1980 Structuring Decision Problems for Decision Analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt University of Southern California, winterfe@usc. edu Follow this and additional works at: http://research. create. We will write a custom essay sample on Decision Analysis or any similar topic only for you Order Now usc. edu/published_papers Recommended Citation von Winterfeldt, Detlof, â€Å"Structuring Decision Problems for Decision Analysis† (1980). Published Articles Papers. Paper 35. http://research. create. usc. edu/published_papers/35 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CREATE Research Archive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Published Articles Papers by an authorized administrator of CREATE Research Archive. For more information, please contact gribben@usc. edu. Acta Psychologica 45 (1980) 71-93 0 North-Holland Publishing Company STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS FOR DECISION ANALYSIS * Detlof von WINTERFELDT ** University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90007, USA Structuring decision problems into a formally acceptable and manageable format is probably the most important step of decision analysis. Since presently no sound methodology for structuring exists, this step is still an art left to the intuition and craftsmanship of the individual analyst. After introducing a general concept of structuring, this paper reviews some recent advances in structuring research. These include taxonomies for problem identification and new tools such as influence diagrams and interpretative structural modeling. Two conclusions emerge from this review: structuring research is still limited to a few hierarchical concepts and it tends to ignore substantive problem aspects that delineate a problem it its real world context. Consequently structuring research has little to say about distinctions between typical problem classes such as regulation, siting, or budget allocation. As an alternative the concept of â€Å"prototypical decision analytic structures† is introduced. Such structures are developed to meet the substantive characteristics of a specific problem (e. g. , siting a specific Liquid Natural Gas plant) but they are at the same time general enough to apply to similar problems (industrial facility siting). As an illustration, the development of a prototypical analytic structure for environmental standard setting is described. Finally, some typical problem classes are examined and some requirements for prototypical structures are discussed. An introduction to problem structuring Decision analysis can be divided into four steps: structuring the problem; formulating inference and preference models; eliciting probabilities and utilities; and exploring the numerical model results. Prac* This research was supported by a grant from the Department of Defense and was monitored by the Engineering Psychology Programs of the Office of Naval Research, under contract # NOOO14-79C-0529. While writing this paper, the author discussed the problem of structuring extensively with Helmut Jungermann. The present version owes much to his thought. Please don’t take footnote 3 too seriously. It is part of a footnote war between Ralph Keeney and me. ** Presently with the Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90007, (213) 741-6955. 12 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems titioners of decision analysis generally agree that structuring is the most important and difficult step of the analysis. Yet, until recently, decision analytic research has all but ignored structuring, concentrating instead on questions of modeling and elicitation. As a result, structuring was, and to some extent still is, considered the ‘art’ part of decision analysis. This paper examines some attempts to turn this art into a science. Trees are the most common decision analytic structures. Decision trees, for example, represent the sequential aspects of a decision problem (see Raiffa 1968; Brown et al. 1974). Other examples are goal trees for the representations of values (Keeney and Raiffa 1976) and event trees for the representation f inferential problem aspects (Kelly and Barclay 1973). In fact, trees so much dominate decision analytic structures that structuring is often considered synonymous to building a tree. This paper, however, will adopt a more general notion of decision analytic structuring. According to this notion, structuring is an imaginative and creative process of transla ting an initially ill-defined problem into a set of welldefined elements, relations, and operations. The basic structuring activities are identifying or generating problem elements (e. g. , events, values, actors, decision alternatives) nd relating these elements by influence relations, inclusion relations, hierarchical ordering relations, etc. The structuring process seeks to formally represent the environmental (objective) parts of the decision problem and the decision makers’ or experts’ (subjective) views, opinions, and values. Graphs, maps, functional equations, matrices, trees, physical analogues, flow charts, and venn diagrams are all possible problem representations. In order to be useful structures for decision analysis, such representations must facilitate the subsequent steps of modeling, elicitation, and numerical nalysis. Three phases can be distinguished in such a generalized structuring process. In the first phase the. problem is identified. The elements which are generated in this phase are the substantive features of the problem: the decision maker(s); the generic classes of alternatives, objectives, and events; individuals or groups affected by the decision; characteristics of the problem environment. This list is pruned by answering questions such as: what is the purpose of the analysis? For whom is the analysis to be performed? Which alternatives can the decision maker truly control? At this stage only very rough relations between problem elements are constructed. Examples include organizational relations D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 73 among decision makers, influence relations between classes of actions and events, and rough groupings of objectives. Products of this problem identification step are usually not very formal, and are seldom reported in the decision analytic literature. They may be in the form of diagrams, graphs, or ordered lists. Among the few documented examples are Hogarth et al. (1980) for the problem of city planning and Fischer and von Winterfeldt 1978) for the problem of setting environmental standards. In the second structuring step, an overall analytic structure is developed. The elements generated in this step are possible analytic problem representations. Besides tree structures, these may include more complex structures previously developed for similar problems such as screening structures for siting decisions or si gnal detection structures for medical decision making. Paradigmatic structures of alternative modeling approaches (e. g. , systems dynamics or linear programming) which could fit the problem should also be examined at this step [ 1 I. A creative activity in this structuring phase is to relate and combine part structures, e. g. , simulation structures with evaluation structures, or decision trees of different actors. From the candidate structures and their combinations an overall structure is selected which is judged most representative of the problem and manageable for further modeling and elicitation. Only a handful of analytic structures have been developed which are more complex than decision trees. Gardiner and Ford (in press) combined simulation and evaluation structures. Keeney (in press) developed decision analytic structure for the whole process of siting energy facilities. Von Winterfeldt (1978) constructed a generic structure for regulatory decision making. The third structuring phase coincides with the more traditional and limited notion of structuring. In this step the parts of the overall analytic structure are formalized in detail by refining the problem elements and relations identified in the first step. This includes a detailed construction of decision trees, event trees, and goal trees. Linkages between part structures are established, e. g. between simulation and evaluation structures. Decision makers and groups affected by possible decisions are specified together with events or actions linking [l] Although such structures alternatives to decision analytic in the remainder of this paper. structures should be considered, I will ignore 14 D. von Winterfeldt/Structuring decision problems them. Examples of this structuring step can be found in most decision analytic textbooks. This three step structuring process of identifying the problem, developing an analytic structure, and formalizing its detailed content seldom evolves in strict sequence. Instead, the process is recursive, with repeated trials and errors. Often the analyst decides on a specific structure and later finds it either unmanageable for modeling or non-representative of the problem. The recognition that a structure needs refmement often follows the final step of decision analysis, if numerical computations and sensitivity analyses point to places that deserve more detailed analysis. Knowing about the recursive nature of the structuring process, it is good decision analysis practice to spend much effort on structuring and to keep an open mind about possible revisions. The above characterization of the structuring process will be used as a format to review the structuring literature. First, the use of problem taxonomies for the step of problem identification is examined. Methods to select analytic approaches are then reviewed as possible aids for the second structuring step. Finally, some recent advances in formalizing part structures are discussed. * Two conclusions emerged from this review and motivated the subsequent sections of this paper: (1) Although structuring research has much to say about analytic distinctions between decision problems and structures (e. . , whether a problem is multiattributed or not), it has little bearing on substantive problem distinction (e. g. , the difference between a typical regulation problem and a typical investment problem). (2) Structuring research is still limited to a few, usually hierarchical concepts and operations. Emphasis is put on simple, operational and computerized structuring. Little effort is spen t on creating more complex combinations of structures that represent real problem classes. As an alternative, the concept of prototypical decision analytic structures is introduced. Such structures have more substance and complexity than the usual decision trees or goal trees. They are developed to meet the substantive characteristics of a specific problem, but are at the same time general enough to apply to similar problems. As an illustration, IIASA’s [21 development of a prototypical decision analytic [2] International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 75 structure for environmental standard setting will be described. Finally, several typical classes of decision problems will be examined and some requirements or prototypical structures will be discussed. Taxonomies for problem identification The taxonomies described in the following typically classify decision problems by analytic categories (e. g. , whether a problem is multiattributed or not) and they attempt to slice the universe of problems into mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets. The purpose of such taxonomies is twofo ld: to facilitate the identification of an unknown element (e. g. , a medical decision problem) with a class of problems (e:g. , diagnostic problem); and to aid the process of matching classes in the problem taxonomy (e. . , diagnostic problems) with an analytic approach (e. g. , signal detection structures). Thus, by their own aspiration, problem taxonomies should be useful for the early phases of structuring decision problems. MacCrimmon and Taylor (1975) discuss on a rather general level the relationship between decision problems and solution strategies. Decision problems are classified according to whether they are ill-structured or well-structured, depending on the extent to which the decision maker feels familiar with the initial state of the problem, the terminal state, and the transformations equired to reach a desired terminal state. Three main factors contribute to ill-structuredness: uncertainty, complexity, and conflict. For each category MacCrimmon and Taylor discuss a number of solution strategies. These strategies include, for example, reductions of the perceptions of uncertainty, modeling strategies, information acquisition and processing strategies, and methods for restructuring a problem. Taylor (1974) adds to this classification scheme four basic types of problems: resource specification, goal specification, creative problems, and well structured problems (see fig. 1). Problem types are identified by the decision maker’s familiarity with the three subparts of the problem. Taylor discusses what types of decision strategies are appropriate for each of these problem categories, for example, brainstorming for creative problems and operations research type solutions for well structured problems. Howell and Burnett (1978) recently developed a taxonomy of tasks 16 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring Problem Type Initial State decision problems Terminal State Transformation Type 1, Resource Specification Problems UnfamllIar Type 11, Goal Specification Problems Type III, Creative Problems Type IV, Well-Structured Problems Varies Varies Unfamihar Varies Vanes Familiar Unfamiliar Familiar Fig. 1. Types of problem structures (Taylor 1974). and types of events with the intention of assessing cognitive options for processing probabilistic information for each taxonomy element. Uncertain events are classified according to three dichotomies: frequentistic – not frequentistic; known data generator – unknown data generator; process external – internal to the observer. Task characteristics are complexity, setting (e. g. , real life us. laboratory), span of events, and response mode characteristics. For each vent/task combination Howell and Burnett discuss how different cognitive processes may be operating when making probability judgments. For example, in estimating frequentistic events with unknown data generators, availability heuristics may be operative. Brown and Ulvila (1977) present the most comprehensive attempt yet to classify decision problems. The ir taxonomy includes well over 100 possible characteristics. Decision problems are defined according to their substance and the decision process involved. Substantive taxonomic characteristics are mainly derived from the analytic properties of the situation, i. . , amount and type of uncertainty, and amount D. von Winterfeldt/Structuring decision problems 71 and types of stakes, types of alternatives. Only a few elements of this part of the taxonomy can be directly related to problem content, i. e. , current vs. contingent decision, operating vs. information act. The taxonomic elements of the decision process refer mainly to the constraints of the decision maker, e. g. , reaction time, available resources. The taxonomy by Brown and Ulvila incorporates most previous problem taxonomies which tried to define decision problems by categories derived from decision analysis. These include taxonomies by von Winterfeldt and Fischer (1975), Miller et al. (1976), and Vlek and Wagenaar (1979). To be useful for problem identification, the above taxonomies should lead an analyst to a class of problems which has characteristics similar to the decision problem under investigation. Unfortunately, the existing problem taxonomies are ill-suited for this purpose, because they use mainly analytic categories to distinguish problems. Such categories are derivatives of the decision analytic models and concepts, rather than characteristics of real world problems. For example, the analytic categorizations f problems into risky vs. riskless classes is based on the distinction between riskless and risky preference models. Analytic categories create more or less empty classes with little or no correspondence to real problems. For example, none of the above taxonomies allows distinguishing between a typical siting problem and a typical regulation problem in a meaningful way. I t appears that substantive rather than analytic characteristics identify real problems. Substantive characteristics are generalized content features of the problems belonging to the respective class. For example, a substantive eature of regulation problems is the involvement of three generic decision makers: the regulator, the regulated, and the beneficiary of regulation. To become useful for problem identification, taxonomies need to include such substantive problem characteristic Methods for selecting an overall analytic structure Most taxonomies include some ideas or principles for matching lems with analytic structures or models. MacCrimmon and attempted to match their basic type of decision problems with tive solution strategies, Howell and Burnett speculated on which tive processes may be invoked by typical task/event classes in probTaylor ognicogniproba- 18 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems bility assessment; von Winterfeldt and Fischer identified for each pro blem category appropriate multiattribute utility models. But in none of these papers explicit matching principles or criteria for the goodness of a match are given. Rather, matches are created on the basis of a priori reasoning about the appropriateness of a strategy, model, or a cognitive process for a particular class of decision problems. Brown and Ulvila (1977) attempted to make this selection process more explicit by creating an analytic taxonomy in correspondence with the problem taxonomy. The analytic taxonomy classifies the main options an analyst may have in structuring and modeling a decision problem. The taxonomy includes factors such as user’s options (amount to be expended on the analysis), input structure (type of uncertainty), elicitation techniques (type of probability elicitation). These categories identify options, both at a general level (optimization, simulation, and Bayesian inference models) and special techniques (e. g. , reference gambles, or Delphi technique). To match problems with analytic approaches Brown and Ulvila created a third taxonomy, called the â€Å"performance measure taxonomy†. This taxonomy evaluates analytic approaches on attributes like â€Å"time and cost measures†, â€Å"quality of the option generation process†, â€Å"quality of communication or implementation†, etc. Different problem classes have different priority profiles on the performance measure categories. Similarly, different analytic approaches have different scoring profiles on the performance measures. The analytic approach chosen should perform well on the priority needs of a particular problem, Brown and Ulvila discuss the ‘goodness of fit’ of several analytic approaches to a number of decision situations in terms of these performance measures. For example, they argue that a contingency type analysis (an element of the analytic taxonomy) is appropriate for decision problems that occur repeatedly and require a fast response (elements of the decision situation taxonomy) because contingency type analysis allows fast calculations (elements of the performance measure taxonomy). Several authors have developed logical selection schemes, which can identify an appropriate analytic approach or model based on selected MacCrimmon (1973), for example, developed a problem features. sequential method for selecting an appropriate approach for multiattribe evaluation. The first question to be answered is whether the purpose of the analysis is normative or descriptive. Further questions D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 79 include whether the type of problem has occurred frequently before, if there are multiple decision makers with conflicting preferences, and whether alternatives are available or have to be designed. All questions are of the yes-no type and together create a flow chart for selecting among 19 possible approaches. For example, if the purpose of the analysis is normative, if direct assessments of preferences (e. g. ratings) are valid and reliable, and if the type of problem has frequently occurred before, regression models or ANOVA type approaches would be appropriate. Johnson and Huber (1977) and Kneppreth et al. (1977) discuss a three step procedure for selecting a multiattribute utility assessment approach. In the first step, the characteristics of the multiattribute problem are listed, including discreteness vs. c ontinuity of dimensions, uncertainty vs. no uncertainty, and independence considerations. In the second step the evaluation situation is characterized on the basis of judgments about the task complexity, mount of training required for assessment, face validity required, assessment time, accuracy and flexibility. In the third and final step the profile describing the evaluation problem is compared with a profile characterizing five different generic assessment models or methods. The technique that best matches the situation profile is selected. For example, lottery assessment methods and models would be appropriate if the evaluation problem involves uncertainties, does not require high face validity, and allows for a good amount of training of the assessor. Both the taxonomy riented and the sequential selection methods for matching problems and analysis suffer from certain drawbacks. As stated earlier, problem characteristics used in taxonomies typically neglect substantive aspects o f the decision problem. Consequently, an analyst may choose an analytic approach based on a match with a spuriously defined problem class. For example, when facing a medical diagnosis problem, an analyst may find that some detailed substantive characteristics of the problem (e. g. , the way doctors process information, the physical format of information, etc. ) suggest a signal detection structure. Yet, as far as I can see, none of the above matching processes would directly lead to such a structure. Advances in formalizing structures Influence diagrams are a recent development in decision analytic structuring (see Miller et al. 1976). Influence diagrams draw a graphical 80 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems picture of the way variables in a decision model influence each other, without superimposing any hierarchical structure. For example, a decision variable (price) may ‘influence’ a state variable (demand) and thus ‘influence’ a final state (successful introduction of a new product into market). Influence diagrams have been conceived mainly as an initial pre-structuring tool to create a cognitive map of a decision maker’s or expert’s view of a decision problem. In the present stage influence diagrams are turned into hierarchical structures and analyzed with traditional tools. But research is now underway at SRI Internatio nal on the use of influence diagrams directly in EV or EU computations. Another generalization of the tree approach is Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) developed, for example, in Warfield (1974) and Sage (1977). In interpretative structural modeling, matrix and graph heory notions are used to formally represent a decision problem. First, all elements of the problem are listed and an element by element matrix is constructed. The structure of the relationships between elements is then constructed by filling in the matrix with numerical judgments reflecting the strength of the relationship, or by simply making O-l judgments about the existence/non-existence of a relation. Computer programs can then be used to convert the matrix into a graph or a tree that represents the problem. Influence diagrams, value trees, decision trees, and inference trees can all be thought of as special cases of ISM. For example, in value tree construction, the analyst may begin with a rather arbitrary collection of value relevant aspects, attributes, outcomes, targets and objectives. Using alternative semantic labels for the relationships between these elements (e. g. , ‘similar’, ‘part of’), an element by element matrix can be filled. Finally, the analyst can explore whether a particular relational structure leads to useful goal tree structure. Besides these generalizations of traditional hierarchical structuring tools, several refinements of special structuring techniques have been suggested, particularly for evaluation roblems. Keeney and Raiffa (1976) devoted a whole chapter to the problem of structuring a value tree. They suggest a strategy of constructing a value tree by beginning with general objectives and disaggregating by using a pure explication logic (i. e. , what is meant by this general objective? ). This approach has previously been advocated by Miller (1 970) and others. Mannheim and Hall (1967) suggest in addition the possibility of disaggregating general D. van Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 81 objectives according to a means-ends logic (how can this general objective be achieved? ). Other disaggregation logics (problem oriented, process oriented, etc. ) could be analyzed in the ISM context. There are a number of papers that suggest more empirical or synthetic approaches to value tree construction. Of particular interest is a repertory grid technique described by Humphreys and Humphreys (1975) and Humphreys and Wisuda (1979). In this procedure similarity and dissimilarity judgments are used to span the value dimensions of alternatives. Several computer aids have been developed recently to aid decision makers or experts in structuring decision problems. Some of these are discussed in Kelly ( 1978), and Humphreys (1980). These aids typically rely on empty structuring concepts (decison trees, value trees, inference trees, or influence diagrams) and they guide the decision maker/expert in the analytic formulation of his/her problem. Special aids are OPINT for moderately complex problems which can easily be formulated into a decision tree or matrix structure, the decision triangle aid for sequential decision problems with a focus on changing probabilities, and EVAL for multiattribute utility problems (Kelly 1978). In addition to these structuring and assessment aids, there are now computerized aids under development xploiting the idea of influence diagrams and fuzzy set theory. Influence diagrams, ISM, and computer aids are indicative of a trend in structuring research and perhaps in decision analysis as a whole. This trend turns the fundamentally empty structures of decision trees, goal trees, and inference trees into more operational, computerized elicitation tools, without adding problem substance. T here are clear advantages to such an approach: a wide range of applicability, flexibility, user involvement, speed, limited training, and feedback, to name only a few. It also reduces the demands on the decision analyst’s time. There is, of course, the other extreme, the prestructured, precanned problem specific version of decision analysis applicable to essentially identical situations. A military example is Decisions and Designs Inc. % SURVAV model (Kelly 1978) which applies to routing decisions for ships to avoid detections by satellites. Such a structure and model can routinely be implemented with almost no additional training. In turn it gives up generalizability. Neither extreme is totally satisfactory. Empty general structures must consider each problem from scratch. Substantive specific struc- 82 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring ecision problems tures have limited generalizability. The middleground of problem driven but still generalizable structures and models needs to be filled. Problem taxonomies may help here by identifying generic classes of problems. But as was discussed earlier, existing taxonomies are ill equipped for this task since they neglect substantive problem features. The question of filling in the middleground between ‘too general’ structures and ‘too specific’ structures thus becomes a question of searching for generalizable content features of problems that identify generic classes of decisions. These generic classes can then be modelled and structured by â€Å"prototypical decision analytic structures† which are specific enough to match the generalizable problem features and general enough to transfer easily to other problems of the same class. At the present stage of research this search process will necessarily be inductive because too little is known about problem substance to develop a problem driven taxonomy and matching analytic structures. An inductive research strategy may attempt to crystallize the generalizable features of a specific application, . or compare a number of similar applications (e. . , with siting problems), or simply use a phenomenological approach to delineate problem classes in a specific application area (e. g. , regulation). In the following two sections some possibilities for developing prototypical decision analytic structures will be discussed. An example of developing a prototypical structure The following example describes the struct uring process in the development of a decision aiding system for environmental standard setting and regulation. The work was performed as part of IIASA’s (see fn. 2) standard setting project (see von Winterfeldt et al. 1978), which had oth descriptive and normative intentions (how do regulators presently set standards? how can analytic models help in the standard setting process? ). Because of this wide approach of the standard setting project, the research group was not forced to produce workable models for specific decision problems quickly. Consequently, its members could afford and were encouraged to spend a substantial amount of time on structuring. Inputs into the structuring process were: – retrospective case studies of specific mental protection agencies; standard processes of environ- national Railway Corporation energylevelmeasure 3 measurefor aeroplanenoise 1 Japanese dB’ ‘SO†, AT SOURCE RULES ROUTING USE SCHEMES SCHEMES LAND Fig. 2. Regul atory alternatives for Shinkansen noise pollution. IMPLEMENTATION AND MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENT /I ALTERNATIVE OF HOUSE IN HOUSE IN FRONT lMldB(A) WCPNLl MEAS†6iiA~â€Å" 30 – di) MEASURED LEO’ EQUIP- TION FICA- SPECI- MENT SPE:D CONTROL RES+RlCT TIMES OPERATION 84 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems – previous models suggested for standard setting; – field studies of two ongoing standard setting processes (oil pollution and noise standards). In addition, the structuring process benefited much from continuing discussions with leading members of environmental agencies in the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan and the United States. Although the structuring effort was geared towards decision analysis, substantial inputs were given by an environmental economist (D. Fischer), an environmental modeller (S. Ikeda), a game theorist (E. Hopfinger), and two physicists (W. Hafele and R. Avenhaus), all members of IIASA’s standard setting research team. The overall question was: how can standard setting problems best be formulated nto a decision analytic format and model such that the model is specific enough to capture the main features of a particular standard setting problem and, at the same time, general enough to apply to a variety of such problems? In other words, what is a prototypical decision analytic structure for standard setting? Since the regulator or regulatory agency was presumed to be the main client of such models, the initial structuring focussed on regulatory alternatives and objectives. In one attempt a wide but shallow alternative tree was conceived which included a variety of regulatory ptions ranging from emission standards, land use schemes, to direct interventions. An example for noise pollution standards is presented in fig, 2. Coupled with an appropriate tree of regulatory objectives, a decision analysis could conceivably be performed by evaluating each alternative with a simple MAU procedure. A possible value tree is presented in fig. 3 for the same noise pollution problem. This simple traditional structure was rejected since regulators seldom have to evaluate such a wide range of alternatives and because it does not capture the interaction between the regulators and the regulated. Also, regulators are much concerned about monitoring and implementation of standards, an aspect which a simple MAU structure does not address. The second structure was a narrow but deep decision tree, exemplified in fig. 4 for an oil pollution problem. In addition to the regulator’s alternatives, this tree includes responses of the industry to standards, possible detection of standards violations, and subsequent sanctions. This structure was geared at fine tuning the regulators’ definitions of D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 85 of hospitals, schools, retwement homes MINIMIZE f residential life DISTURBANCE other / EEggF M,NIM,zE HEALTH Hearing EFFECTS PsychologIcal Synergetic (aggravation of existing illness) Investment for pollution equipment MINIMIZE COST ~—– Operation of pollution eqwpment RAILWAY CORP. OBJECTIVES Speed MAXIMIZE SERVICE - Aeliablllty ClXlllOrt wth mtemational regulation CONSISTENCY OF REGULATION with other national â⠂¬Å"cise standards (car, mr. other trams) POLITICAL OBJECTIVES -/ Enwonmental policy AGREEMENT POLICY WITH GOVERNMENT Transportation policy t Ewnomtc growih policy Fig. 3. Regulatory objectives for noise pollution control. he standard level (maximum emission, etc. ) and monitoring and sanction schemes, and to assessing environmental impacts. The structure is specific in terms of the regulatory alternatives. But by considering industry responses as random events, and by leaving out responses of environmental groups, it fails to address a major concern of regulatory decision making. The third structure was a three decision maker model, in which the regulator, the industry/developer and the environmentalists/impactees are represented by separate decision analytic models (see von Winterfeldt 1978). A signal detection type model links the regulator’s decision through possible detections of violations and sanction schemes to the the industry model. An event tree of pollution generating events and effects links the developer’s decisions to the impactee model (see fig. 5). The model can be run as follows: the regulator’s alternatives are left 86 EPA average UK aver,, UK maximum Norway average DEFINITIONS OF OIL EMISSION STANDARDS parts per million ofoil No pollution – Grawty Separator cugated Plate Inter- equipment Gas Flotation Filters ceptrr n ob STANDARD LEVEL in watt r ofoil POLLUTION EQUIPMENT PERFORMANCE o00 patis per milhon in water n First vidabon of No udat#on of standard occurs at tulle DETECTION STATES standard dunng all opemons n t POLLUTION EQUIPMENT DECISION BY THE OIL INDUSTRY PENALTY No pdlution equipment Gravity separator Gas Flotatux corrugated Plate bltw- Pais Filters EQUIPMENT PERFORMANCE per million n Second wdation POLLUTION EQUIPME NT DECISION BY THE OIL INDUSTRY No more vidations DETECTION STATES Find eflects~ on environment (pdlution levels) FINAL EFFECTS – industry (cost) – regulatlx (political) Fig. 4. Segment of a decision tree for setting oil pollution standards. A standard is usually defined by the number of samples to be taken, how many samples form an average, and how many exemptions from a violation are allowed. For example, the EPA average definition is as follows: four samples are to be taken daily, the average of the four samples may not exceed the standard level (e. g. , 50 ppm) more than twice during any consecutive 30 day period. 87 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems REGULATORY 1 DECISION MODEL I U R (0 1 DETECTION OF REGULATION VIOLATION DEVELOPER – SANCTIONS POLLUTION GENERATING EVENTS I IMPACTEE DECISION MODEL POLLUTION EFFECTS Fig. 5. Schematic representation of the regulator-developer-impactee model. 1: variable standard of the regulator d(r): expected utility maximizing treatment decision of the developer a[d(r)]: expected utility maximizing decision of the impactees variable. The developer’s response is optimized in terms of minimizing expected investment, operation, and detection costs or maximizing equivalent expected utilities. Finally, the impactees are assumed to maximize their expected utility conditional on the regulator’s and the developer’s decision. At this point the model stops. The structure only provides for a Pareto optimality analysis of the three expected utilities accruing to the generic decision units. This model allows some detailed analyses of the probabilities and value aspects of the standard setting problem, and it proved feasible in a pilot application to chronic oil discharge standards (see von Winterfeldt et al. 1978). Regulators who were presented with this model, con- 88 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems REGULATOR’S CHOICE Fig. 6. Game theoretic structure of the regulation I problem. sidered it meaningful, and it offered several insights into the standard setting problematique. Yet, there was a feeling among analysts and regulators that the static character of the model and the lack of feedback loops required improvement. The final structure considered was a game theoretic extension of the three decision maker model. The structure of the game theoretic model is presented in fig. 6. In this model the standard setting process in explicitly assumed to be dynamic, and all feedbacks are considered. In addition, transitions from one stage to another are probabilistic. The model was applied in a seven stage version in a pilot study of noise standard setting for rapid trains (Hapfinger and von Winterfeldt 1978). The game theoretic model overcomes the criticisms of the static decision analytic model, but in turn it gives up the possibility for fine tuning and detailed modeling of trade-offs and probabilities. Considering such aspects in detail would have made the running of the model impossible. Therefore, relatively arbitrary (linear) utility functions and simple structures of transition probabilities have to be assumed. Although the appropriateness of the different structures was not explicitly addressed in this study, two main criteria come to mind when judging structures: representativeness of the problem and manageability for further analysis. Each of these criteria can be further broken down. For example, representativeness includes judgments about the adequacy of the structural detail, and coverage of important problem aspects. The overall conclusions of many discussion with regulators, analysts, D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 89 industry representatives, and the results of the pilot applications led us to accept the third structure as a prototypical decision analytic structure for relatively routine emission standard setting problems. The model is presently considered for further applications in emission tandard setting and an extension to safety standards will be explored. Towards a kit of prototypical decision analytical structures Not every decision analysis can afford to be as broad and time consuming as the previous study. Decision analysis usually has a much more specific orientation towards producing a decision rather than developing a generic structure. Still I think that it would be helpful i f analysts were to make an effort in addressing the question of generalizability when modeling a specific problem, and in extracting those features of the problem and the model that are transferable. Such an inductive pproach could be coupled with more research oriented efforts and with examinations of similarities among past applications. Such an approach may eventually fill the middleground between too specific and too general models and structures. But rather than filling this middleground with analytically specific but substantively empty structures and models, it would be filled with prototypical structures and models such as the above regulation model, more refined signal detection models, siting models, etc. In the following, four typical classes of decision problems (siting, contingency planning, budget allocation, and regulation) are examined nd requirements for prototypical structures for these problems are discussed. Facility siting clearly is a typical decision problem. Keeney and other decision analysts have investigated this problem in much detail and in a variety of contexts (see the examples in Keeney and Raiffa 1976). A typical aspect of such siting problems is sequential screening from candidate areas to possible sites, to a preferred set, to final site specific evaluations. Another aspect is the multiobjective nature with emphasis on generic classes of objectives: investment and operating cost, economic benefits, environmental impacts, social impacts, and political onsiderations. Also, the process of organizing, collecting, and evaluating information is similar in many siting decisions. Thus, it should be possible to develop a prototypical structure for facility siting decisions, 90 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems simply by assembling the generalizable features of past applications [ 31. Contingency planning is another recurring and typical problem. Decision and Design Inc. addressed this problem in the military context, bu t it also applies to planning for actions in the case of disasters such as Liquid Natural Gas plant explosions or blowouts from oil platforms. Substantive aspects that are characteristic of contingency planning are: strong central control of executive organs, numerous decisions have to be made simultaneously, major events can drastically change the focus of the problem, no cost or low cost information comes in rapidly, and organizational problems may impede information flows and actions. Although, at first glance, decision trees seem to be a natural model for contingency planning, a prototypical decision model would require modifying a strictly sequential approach to accommodate these aspects. For example, the model should be flexible enough to allow for the ‘unforeseeable’ (rapid capacity to change the model structure), it should have rapid information updating facilities without overstressing the value of information (since most information is free), and it should attend to fine tuning of simultaneous actions and information interlinkages. Budget allocation to competing programs is another typical problem. In many such problems different programs attempt to pursue similar objectives, and program mix and balance has to be considered besides the direct benefits of single programs. Another characteristic of budgeting decisions is the continuous nature of the decision variable and the constraint of the total budget. MAU looks like a natural structure for budget allocation decision since it can handle the program evaluation aspect (see Edwards et al. 1976). But neither the balance issue nor the constrained and continuous characteristics of the budget are appropriately adressed by MAU. A prototypical decision analytic structure would model an evaluation of the budget apportionment, or the mix of programs funded at particular levels. Such a structure would perhaps exploit dependencies or independencies among programs much like independence assumption for preferences. Regulation covers a class of decision problems with a number of recurrent themes: three generic groups involved (regulators, regulated, [,3] I believe that. Keeney’s forthcoming book on siting energy facilities is a major step in that direction. Of. course, it could also be a step in the opposite direction. Or in no direction at all (see also first asterisked footnote at the beginning of the article). D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 91 beneficiaries of regulation), importance f monitoring and sanction schemes, usually opposing objectives of the regulated and the benefrciaries of regulation, and typically highly political objectives of the regulator. In the previous section, the more specific regulation problem of standard setting was discussed, and a prototypical decision analytic structure was suggested. A decision analytic structure for regulation in general can build on the main features of the standard setting model. This list could be extended to include private investment decisions, product mix selection, resource development, diagnostic problems, etc. But the four examples hopefully re sufficient to demonstrate how prototypical decision analytic structuring can be approached in general. In my opinion, such an approach to structuring could be at least as useful for the implementation of decision analysis as computerization of decision models. Besides the technical advantages of trahsferability, prototypical decision analytic structures would serve to show that decision analysts are truly concerned about problems. Today decision analysis books have chapters such as ‘simple decisions under uncertainty’ and ‘multiattribute evaluation problems’. I am looking forward to chapters such as ‘siting industrial acilities’, ‘pollution control management’, an d ‘contingency planning’. References Brown, R. V. and J. W. Ulvila, 1977. Selecting analytic approaches for decision situations. (Revised edition. ) Vol. I: Overview of the methodology. Technical report no. TR77-7-25, Decisions and Designs, Inc. , McLean, VA. Brown, R. V. , A. S. Kahr and C. Peterson, 1974. Decision analysis for the manager. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston. Edwards, W. , M. Guttentag and K. Snapper, 1976. A decision-theoretic approach to evaluation research. In: E. L. Streuning and M. Guttentag (eds. ), Handbook of evaluation research, I. London: Sage. Fischer, D. W. and D. von Winterfeldt, 1978. Setting standards for chronic oil discharges in the North Sea. Journal of Environmental Management 7, 177-199. Gardiner, P. C. and A. Ford, in press. A merger of simulation and evaluation for applied policy research in social systems. In: K. Snapper (ed. ), Practical evaluation: case studies in simplifying complex decision problems. Washington, DC: Information Resource Press. Hogarth, R. M. , C. Michaud and J. -L. Mery, 1980. Decision behavior in urban development: a methodological approach and substantive considerations. Acta Psychologica 45, 95-117. Hiipfmger, E. and R. Avenhaus, 1978. A game theoretic framework for . dynamic standard setting procedures. IIASA-RM-78. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. 92 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems Hopfinger, E. and D. von Winterfeldt, 1979. A dynamic model for setting railway noise standards. In: 0. Moeschlin and D. Pallaschke (eds. ), Game theory and related topics. Amsterdam: North-Holland. pp. 59-69. Howell, W. C. and S. A. Burnett, 1978. Uncertainty measurement: a cognitrve taxonomy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 22,45-68. Humphreys, P. C. , 1980. Decision aids: aiding decisions. In: L. Sjoberg, T. Tyszka and J. A. Wise (eds), Decision analyses and decision processes, 1. Lund: Doxa (in press). Humphreys, P. C. and A. R. Humphreys, 1975. An investigation of subjective preference orderings for multiattributed alternatives. In: D. Wendt and C. Vlek (eds. ), Utility, probability, and human decision making. Dordrecht, Holland: Reidel, pp. 119-133. Humphreys, P. C. and A. Wisudha, 1979. MAUD – an interactive computer program for the structuring, decomposition and recomposition of preferences between multiattributed alternatives. Technical report 79-2, Decision Analysis Unit, Brunel University, Uxbridge, England. Johnson, E. M. and G. P. Huber, 1977. The technology of utility assessment. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, vol. SMCJ, 5. Keeney, R. L. , in press. Siting of energy facilities. New York: Academic Press. Keeney, R. L. and H. Raiffa, 1976. Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs. New York: Wiley. Kelly, III, C. W. , 1978. Decision aids: engineering science and clinical art. Technical Report, Decisions and Designs, Inc. , McLean, VA. Kelly, C. and S. Barclay, 1973. A general Bayesian model for hierarchical inference. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 10, 388-403. Kneppreth, N. P. , D. H. Hoessel, D. H. Gustafson, and E. M. Johnson, 1977. A strategy for selecting a worth assessment technique. Technical paper 280, U. S. Army Research Institute for Behavioral and Social Sciences, Arlington, VA. MacCrimmon, K. R. , 1973. An overview of multiple criteria decision making. In: J. L. Cochrane and M. Zeleney (eds. ), Multiple criteria decision making. Columbia, SC: The University of South Carolina Press. pp. 18-44. MacCrimmon, K. R. and R. N. Taylor, 1975. Problem solving and decision making. In: M. C. Dunnette (ed. ), Handbook of industrial and organizational psychology. New York: Rand McNally. Mannheim, M. L. and F. Hall, 1967. Abstract representation of goals: a method for making decisions in complex problems. In: Transportation, a service. Proceedings of the Sesquicentennial Forum, New York Academy of Sciences – American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York. Miller, J. R. , 1970. Professional decision making: a procedure for evaluating complex alternatives. New York: Praeger. Miller, AC. , M. W. Merkhofer, R. A. Howard, J. E. Matheson and T. R. Rice, 1976. Development of automated aids for decision analysis. Technical report, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, CA. Raiffa, H. , 1968. Decision analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Sage, A. , 1977. Methodology for large scale systems. New York: McGraw-Hill. Taylor, R. C. , 1974. Nature of problem ill-structuredness: implications for problem formulation and solution. Decision Sciences 5,632-643. Vlek, C. and W. A. Wagenaar, 1979. Judgment and decision under uncertainty. In: J. A. Michon, E. G. Eijkman and L. F. W. DeKlerk (eds. ), Handbook of psychonomics, II. Amsterdam: North-Holland. pp. 253-345. Warfield, J. , 1974. Structuring complex systems. Batelle Memorial Institute Monograph, no. 4. Winterfeldt, D. von, 1978. A decision aiding system for improving the environmental standard D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 93 setting process. In: K. Chikocki and A. Straszak (eds. ), Systems analysis applications to complex programs. Oxford: Pergamon Press. pp. 119-124. Winterfeldt, D. von and D. W. Fischer, 1975. Multiattribute utility: models and scaling procedures. In: D. Wendt and C. Vlek (eds. ), Utility, probability, and human decision making. Dordrecht, Holland: Reidel. pp. 47-86. Winterfeldt, D. von, R. Avenhaus, W. Htiele and E. Hopfmger, 1978. Procedures for the establishment of standards. IIASA-AR-78-A, B, C. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. How to cite Decision Analysis, Papers

Poetic Explication on Charles Martins Taken Up Essay Example For Students

Poetic Explication on Charles Martins Taken Up Essay Taken up is a poem that could illustrate two possible scenarios. This poem can be interpreted as viewing a group of people waiting on, meeting, and leaving with extraterrestrial beings. It could also be a personified colony of aspen trees that are awaiting the sun on a spring day. It is written In free verse that does not have a specific amount of syllables per line. The poem consists of seven terra Irma rhyming verse stanzas, which displays the authors control over the free verse form. These stanzas are constructed simply by using the rhyme scheme a a a, b b b, ND so on. This poem Is written In the third person narrative and describes the Interaction between humans and aliens. It could also describe the scene of a colony of aspen trees waiting on a spring morning. The poem uses descriptive language so that one may easily construct a visual scene with their mind. The poem presents the use of literary devices-?imagery, alliteration, metaphors, and personification are most common The poem was written in 1978 by the American poet Charles Martin, and could possibly capture the ideals of the American popular culture at the time. The Roswell Incident of 1947 gave rise to a multitude of thoughts regarding the possibilities of extraterrestrials coming to earth. On the other hand, the poem could simply be about beauty and life as seen in nature. The opening lines of the poem possibly illustrate the extraterrestrial idea as well as a colony of aspen trees waiting for the sunrise on a spring morning. It begins:Tiled of earth, they dwindled on their hill,Watching and waiting In the moonlight until aspens leaves quite suddenly grew stall,elf we assume the poet is referring to people in this poem, these lines would illustrate a roof of people dwindled, or sitting, on a hill watching upwards towards outer space. Line three, The aspens leaves quite suddenly grew still could possibly refer to the silence before something big happens. This type of silence can be compared to the silence a contestant on Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Species before knowing if he/ she correctly answered the question. But if we were to assume that the poet is referring to a colony of aspen trees, then it could be read much differently. Because trees need sunlight to grow through photosynthesis, they might be personified In the ensue that they dwindle in the moonlight while they are watching and waiting for the night to be over and the sun to rise. The third line illustrates the calmness of a spring morning. Aspen leaves by nature easily catch the slightest breeze so this illustrates a deadening silence or calmness. The next three lines continue to illustrate both ideas of extraterrestrials as well as the aspen tree colony:No longer quaking as the disc descended,That glowing wheel of lights whose coming emendable waiting and watching. When it Allendale first line enforces the idea of silence or calmness because the quaking refers to the leaves of an aspen tree quaking, or rocking, back and forth. The disc descended could refer to 1 OFF space craft might look like. It might also be the moon going down in anticipation of the sun rising, which brings the life giving rays of light. Line two might illustrate the coming of the sun, glowing wheel of lights, and the closure of night, whose coming ended. It could also be compared with a wheel of lights, or a OF. The third line, All waiting and watching. When it landed could refer to people waiting and watching his OF land. On the other hand, it could mean that this aspen colony is personified in the sense that it is waiting and watching for the rays of sunlight when it landed giving the possibility of life to the saplings in the colony. .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 , .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .postImageUrl , .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 , .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1:hover , .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1:visited , .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1:active { border:0!important; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1:active , .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1 .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .uab0bab213c423f40deeab64b6470e5e1:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Robert Frost Poetry - Emotional Barriers EssayThe third stanza again carries dualism in its lines:The ones within it one by one came forth,Stalking out awkwardly upon the earth,And those who watched them were confirmed in faith:The first line could illustrate the extraterrestrials one by one getting off the OF. The first line is followed by a descriptive line as people see them s stalking out awkwardly because it would be awkward to see something new from outer space that might have been proportionally dissimilar to a human. This first encounter with extraterrestrials would cause these people to be confirmed in faith. Their beliefs have now been confirmed; there are extraterrestrials in the universe. The other take on these lines illustrates a view of saplings, which came forth, or sprouted one by one growing awkwardly upon the earth in all the different directions that branches grow. These new trees were growing and the rest colony was confirmed in faith by their growth. They were ensured that a new generation of life was growing among the colony. In stanzas four and five it seems as if the extraterrestrial idea is clearly what the poet is referring to, but it could very well be another reference to the aspen tree colony. One must think abstractly to pull out dual meanings in the following lines:Mysterious voyagers from outer space,Attenuated, golden-?shreds of laces into seeds of the sunflowers spinning facilitate was their speech, spanning mind to mind:We come here not believing what we find-?Can it be your desire to leave behind hysterics voyagers are extraterrestrials from outer space who are attenuated, or made slim, but have a huge face like that of a sunflowers spinning face. These lines help to paint a picture of what an extraterrestrial might look like. At the time, in American popular culture the thinning or attenuated physique of the alien with a huge sunflower like face was commonly used as the symbol for extraterrestrials. The golden may be descriptive of a really bright light that one may associate with extraterrestrials. Then in the next line the extraterrestrials speech was light, or low one, which may reassure that no harm would come to those encountering this. The next two lines of the fifth stanza are written so that one may think an alien was talking about finding people whom they are not believing would want to desire to leave behind the earth. Or, it could be that the mysterious voyagers are the rays of light beaming on the earth from outer space where the sun is. The golden-?shreds of lace is descriptive of the golden rays of life giving light that the sun produces. The rays are golden in color and as beautiful as lace. The rays of light allow the seeds to row into the saplings of the aspen colony. The suns light that was spanning from sapling to sapling, or seed to seed, giving each the necessary fuel for growth. The last two lines are lines of questioning. Do the saplings really want to leave behind the earth from where they began? The next stanza again questions both the colony of aspens as well as the people desiring to leave with the extraterrestrials:The earth, which those called angels bless,Exchanging amplitude for emptiness? And in a single voice they answered Yes,The line exchanging amplitude for emptiness could suggest he question of why would these humans leave this earth full of everything they need for life for a life in the emptiness of outer space? Likewise, these lines could be asking a question to the aspen saplings. Do the saplings really want to leave the amplitude of the earthly body for the emptiness of the air above ground? Both parties answered Yes states that the people want to leave earth as well as the saplings wanting to grow from the earth and in a sense leave it as well. It is almost as sustenance is being taken from both people and the colony. People do not survive well for long in an environment without oxygen, such as outer space. .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd , .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .postImageUrl , .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd , .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd:hover , .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd:visited , .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd:active { border:0!important; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd:active , .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .u247ec9f92e823a3187b637726a084bbd:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Critical Essay - Section PoetryLikewise, aspen trees only live for a short amount of time above ground (40-150 years); while there root system in the earth can survive for far longer (up to 80,000 years). (Wisped)The final stanza of this poem finishes off the dualism seen throughout the poem:Discord of human melodies all blotto the unearthly strain of their assent. Come then, the Strangers said, and those that were taken, went. The first line refers to a discord, or disagreement among human beings whether or tot to make the decision to take the assent into space. The extraterrestrials tell those who decide to go to come then and those who did not disagree with them went. On the other hand, the saplings are in strain of their assent meaning that gravity is working against the samplings that are stalking out awkwardly causing strain on their assent higher and higher into the emptiness of the air. The saplings want to continue this growth and the strangers can be compared to the sunlight that allow for growth to happen. The strangers supplied the saplings with the sunlight needed to be taken onto the air. This poem can definitely been seen as a parallel between a human existence, and a non-human existence such as an aspen colony. How would a sapling or tree react to the sun flooding its life giving rays of light upon the earth each day? How would a person react to a OF filled with extraterrestrials wanting to take you take you with them to outer space? Are such reactions natural on both parts? Does a sapling decide whether to become a tree and leave the ground from which it was once buried and only a seed? Likewise, does the human decide whether to leave its earthly home in reach of the exploration of extraterrestrial life?

Legal aspects of purchasing Essay Example

Legal aspects of purchasing Essay Deer what conditions might purchasers be personally liable for contracts they enter into? If you misrepresent your authority by: Making a false statement concerning authority with intent to deceive, or when misrepresentation has the natural and probable consequence of deception. Carrying out a detrimental act without authority, even though believing they have such authority. Performing an act that is itself illegal, even on authority from the employer. Deliberately performing an act that results In damage to anyone and acting outside the scope of their authority, even though the act Is performed with the purpose of enduring the employer a valuable service. Is an oral contract legally enforceable? Under what conditions? There are 6 conditions for an oral contract to be legally enforceable; the major ones are offer, acceptance and consideration. The other three minor ones are intent to have an agreement, capability issue (e. G. Under aged) and it has to be a legal act. Ender these conditions an oral contract is legally enforceable. What authority does a supply manager have to make decisions that are binding on the principal? What responsibility do purchasing agents have for the consequences of their decisions? The same authority that a purchasing manager would have; a Job offer letter, Job description, employment agreement, specific instructions for example on what sort of materials you are entitled to buy or supply, company policies or procedures that details the job responsibility and levels of authority and common business practices. We will write a custom essay sample on Legal aspects of purchasing specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Legal aspects of purchasing specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Legal aspects of purchasing specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer The responsibilities of a purchasing agent are to perform his or her assigned duties to the fullest extent of their ability In a loyal, honest and careful manner. A purchasing officer may become accountable to the employer when damage occurs because of his or her negligence. The employer need to be informed consistently about detailed actions taken to accomplish those functions, and also what sort of results those actions have produced. Commercial documents should be kept organized and detailed for the employers and employees protection, as well as to conform to stipulated regulatory and legal requirements. It is important for the buyer to be clear with whoever he deals with to know that he is representing on behalf of a company to avoid personal liability so that they are able to hold the principal responsible for any action that needs to be taken.

Colonial Americas Growth DBQ essays

Colonial America's Growth DBQ essays Colonial America experienced rapid growth during the 18th century, with its population doubling every 25 years. Much of the foundation and growth of the American colonies can be attributed to the promise of economic opportunity. While land was plentiful and labor was in high demand, the colonists opportunities to succeed where hindered by Economic opportunity is relative to the next best alternative, especially to those Europeans immigrating to America in search of it. In Europe, the lower classes faced the effects of overpopulation, a crowded society, where every place is over-stocked. In comparison, Document 6 continues on to say, there is room for every body in America. (Document 6) Overpopulation in Europe caused a shortage of land and an excess unskilled labor force left jobless. According to Document 2, there was indeed economic opportunity for the aforementioned jobless, poor people (both men and women) of all kinds, can here get three times the wages for their labor they can in England or Wales. (Document 2) In contrast, Gottlieb Mittelberger writes in his Journey to Pennsylvania that those who can perform manual labor in their own country should, stay THERE rather than come to America. (Document 3) Mittelberger describes the price of indentured servitude as the, barter and [sale of] their children as if they were cattle. (Document 3) To some, the heavy cost of indentured servitude was too much. To many immigrants, however, the price to pay to get to America was worth securing opportunity for themselves and their progeny. What of those who where native born to the colonies? Here the rewards of his industry follow with equal steps the progress of his labor. Document 6 promises economic prosperity equal to the amount of work applied in the New World. It goes on to say, Some few towns excepted, we are all tillers of the earth, from Nova Scotia ...

Byrons Don Juan

Byrons Don Juan Essay Byrons Don JuanOne writer who has not recieved nearly enough credit for his works isGeorge Gordon, who later became known as Lord Byron. This is the man who wrotehis own poetical version of Don Juan. Don Juan is a man who is known for beingable to arouse the desires of women and to love every one he meets. This DonJuan can be viewed, however, as a loosely disguised biography of Byron. Lord Byrons father, Captain John, has ancestors that go back as far asthe Buruns in the time of William the Conqueror. Back in this time it was verycommon for people to marry their own cousins. Captain John was married threetimes and was considered to be very smooth with the ladies. Byron was born on January 22, 1788 in London, and the following year heand his mother moved to Aberdeen, Scotland. His father soon followed, but itwouldnt be long before he would disappear to France and end up dying in 1791. It was just as well because his parents never got along very well. In Lord Byrons early years he experienced poverty, the ill-temper ofhis mother, and the absence of his father. By 1798 he had inherited the titleof 6th Baron Byron and the estate of Newstead Abbey. Once hearing this news, heand his mother quickly removed to England. All of Byrons passions developed early. In 1803 he had his firstserious and abortive romance with Mary Chaworth. At the age of15 he fellplatonically but violently in love with a young distant cousin, Mary Duff(Parker 10). He soon had another affair with a woman named Mary Gray. Soonhereafter he was involved with many liaisons with such women as Lady CarolineLamb and then Lady Oxford. Then just as Byron was beginning to live his life the way he had alwayswanted to, his mother dies in 1811. The following year he became immenselyfashionable and notorious. By 1813 he had began another affair with his half-sister Augusta. Continuing his search for the woman of his dreams, he marrysAnabella Milbanke in 1815 and has a daughter the same year. The next year Lady Byron leaves him to visit her parents and neverreturns. Separation papers are signed and he begins another liaison with ClaireClairmont. The following year(1817), they have a baby named Allegra. Not toolong after this he falls in love with yet another woman, named Marianna Segati. His next love happened two years later, Countess Teresa Guiccioli. Manysay she was his last love and his first. Byron met Teresa at an evening party. They soon began meeting secretly because she was married to Count AlessandroGuiccioli. She had auburn curls, large lovely eyes, beautifully shapedshoulders and arms, and an abundant bosom. She was completely intrigued byByrons beauty. Maybe they both felt that fate brought them together. It wascustomary in the code of serventismo for a married woman to have a lover andthe husband wasnt allowed to be jealous. Count Alessandro did know aboutTeresa and Byrons love for each other, but never spoke of it (Trueblood 99). After this liaison ended, Byrons life began to exhale love and devotionin vast quantities. Then his daughter, Allegra, and one of his close friends,Shelley, died in 1822. Two years later Lord Byron himself died. His body wasthen brought to England and buried in family vault at Hucknall Torkard nearNottingham. At his death he was the most famous poet in Europe and the mostnotorious sexual adventurer. READ: The Image of God EssayLord Byron was a professional poet. His letters and journals prove hisconcern to be the best poet around and to be famous was consistently deep andserious. Ambition for power and popularity came first and remained always theprinciple reason for writing. Byron had a great range of interests andexperiences of ideas and emotion than your average man ever did (Boyd 4). Don Juan is, all-in-all, a legendary lover. Familiar with the Don Juanlegend, Byron deliberately altered the traditional character and made him theinnocent victim of womankind. He experiences love by natural disaster, slavery,war, the court, and the aristocracy. Its two main epic themes are love and war(Joseph 74). The first two cantos of the poem Byron wrote were published without anauthor or a publisher. Many thought the poem was novel and powerful, and causedgreat misgivings for Byrons publisher. Others hoped for the poem to bediscontinued. The first sample of Don Juan got a very mixed reception. Byronspublisher, Murray, told him the poem was too outrageously shocking and to reviseit. He did not listen to Murray. He believed in what he had created and hewanted to continue it.

Of Mice and Men- Emotion not reason motivates Leni and George Essay

Of Mice and Men- Emotion not reason motivates Leni and George - Essay Example For instance, Lennie and George are emotionally bound in spite of the fact that they are opposites. The emotional sufferings and feeling of isolation binds both men more than a rational decision to buy a farm: â€Å"Guys like us, that work on ranches, are the loneliest guys in the world. They got no family. They don’t belong no place. . . . With us it ain’t like that. We got a future. We got somebody to talk to that gives a damn about us† (Steinbeck 1993, 23). The varieties of this emotional impact are extensive: they may be a record of emotional struggles and experiences of both men. Steinbeck seeks consciously or unconsciously to give their readers the sort of emotional "en ­joyment; he flatters his readers that the possession of feelings of whatever kind is in itself a good thing, and they account it laudable to be able to move readers. The dream to own piece of land is influenced by emotions rather than a rational choice. George idealizes farming and its benefits which represents the American dream. â€Å"I seen hundreds of men come by on the road an’ on the ranches, with their bindles on their back an’ that same damn thing in their heads . . . every damn one of ’em’s got a little piece of land in his head. An’ never a God damn one of ’em ever gets it. Just like heaven. Ever’body wants a little piece of lan’. I read plenty of books out here. Nobody never gets to heaven, and nobody gets no land† (Steinbeck 1993, 34). The American dream means opportunities for everyone to become rich and prosperous in spite of his background and origin. Lennie and George are motivated by desire to earn enough for living. They see the road as the only possible place to realize their dreams. The farm and land symbolize life experience of a particular person, and it brings message to everyone to think over next step in his life. It implies not only wisdom, but also the whole life of Lennie and George. The killing of Lennie

Marketing Audit Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Marketing Audit - Research Paper Example Newness in the product signifies minor modification of the existing product that is new to the world and can also create new market for the organization. Higher the degree of newness, higher is the chances of failure or success. On one hand the newness can bring success for the organization by increasing the sales and profit, whereas on the other hand, it may lead to high cost and failure that can create problems for the business (Cravens and Piercy, 2010). This study focuses on conducting a marketing audit for a customised car that can serve many purposes at the same time. This car serves the purpose of multifunction and customization that offers the owner with the opportunity of using and transforming the car in a variety of new designs. It can serve the function of both city car and pick up. Toyota has shown interest in launching this car and in this regards the marketing audit has been conducted. About Toyota Toyota Motor Corporation is one of the world’s most favourable a nd leading manufacturers of automobile. It is the market leader in developing technologically advanced and environmental friendly cars. Toyota Motor Company was officially launched and started up by Kiichiro Toyoda in the year 1937 (Borowski, 2010). In the year 1952 the company experienced exponential growth and become successful. After this success the company began to export cars to South America and five years after this achievement, the company gained firm ground in the automobile market of North America. Entering the market of US proved to be a breakthrough for Toyota in terms of automobile export. In the year 1982, Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) was formed by collaborating Toyota Motor Sales Company with Toyota Motor Company. Currently the company has nearly 522 subsidiaries all over the worlds with about 320,808 staff and having their manufacturing unit not only in Japan but also in 51 other locations spread over 26 countries (Borowski, 2010). In the year 2007 Toyota Motor Co rporation has the highest share price value among all the car manufacturers. In the year 2008 the company recorded total sales of 8.972 million cars generating an annual turnover of $239.4 billion. In the same year the organization was recognised as the biggest manufacturer in the automobile industry (Borowski, 2010). Marketing Audit Marketing audit is described as the process of â€Å"comprehensive, systematic, independent and periodic examination of a company’s or business unit’s marketing environment, objectives, strategies and activities with a view of determining problem areas and opportunities and recommending a plan of action to improve the company’s marketing performance† (Avasarikar and Chordiya, 2007, p. 4.15). The profitability of the organization can be increased by conducting marketing audit before launching a new product in the existing or new market (Kotler and Keller, 2012). In this regards the strength, weakness, opportunities and threat of the product and the organization has been identified. Strength The major strength of the product is customisation. The owner of the car can use this in a variety of ways serving numerous purposes. The owner can use it as a pick up van and as a common city car at the same time. The car has got innovative features that can attract the customers. It is

A seminar on “Beginning For Beginnger” Essay Example for Free

A seminar on â€Å"Beginning For Beginnger† Essay A seminar on â€Å"Beginning For Beginnger† was held at DKU at Faculty of Business Managemnet. This seminar was held on 9 June 2012-06-24. This seminar was begin on 2.00Pm 5PM. It was jointly organised by all part three student who take Mgt538 in this semester. The purpose of the Seminar was to talk about lessons and challenges in facing currunt enviroment on studies and future working enviroment. It focused mainly on the attitutes, styles and action that should be take to faced all the situation. All part three students whose take this subject are compulsory to attented this seminar. The Programme is given at DKU that situated in Faculty of Business Management. The seminar was given by Cik Noor Syuhada,caunsellor Uitm Seri Iskandar Perak. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES The seminar was structured in a way that helped participants to walk through the issues, starting from the relevance of the organisational context, along the issues that have to be addressed, the intended or assumed and finally to the actual implementation. The objectives of the seminar were to provide insight in the issues, to identify the mistake ,and to discuss the possible approaches for formulating and implementing tools that can be take. In order to encourage discussion and a more focussed exchange of information practical sessions were scheduled .During these sessions participants could ask some questions and share thoughts with each other and the speakers. THE POSITIVE IMPACTS The seminar participants agreed that : 1. This programs will help them to improve their knowledge on facing their future enviroment especially during their working enviroment. 2. Many participants were given a chance to ask any questions and they also were give a chance to share some idea or tips that will give benefits to all participants. 3. It is important that all parties to attends,it will give a common understanding about what these and other key terms mean. 4. The seminar have give them a lot of tips on attending interviews and facing interviews session that will improve their confident to facing that. THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS The side impacts that can be conclude from the seminar : 1. Some participants not focus during the seminar. 2. They playing games on their mobile phone, chatting, talking and etc. 3. Not all students have confidents to ask questions even they have intention to do so. 4. Sessions for students to discuss among themselves was not held. RECOMMENDATIONS : Some recommendations that can be take are : 1. Small group discussion can be do in oreder to give participants share or discuss among themselves about the issues on the seminar. 2. Students should be ask to switch off their phone during the seminar. 3. Try to encourage students to build up their confident to share, ask or gine opinion during the seminar. CONCLUSIONS : The feedback of the participants confirmed that the seminar was very much appreciated as well as that there is a pressing need for more practical approaches and for other opportunities to discuss the many issues. The speakers came also from different backgrounds and presented the audience with different practical experiences, insights, and views, both at an organisational and national level. It gave a good impression and understanding of the many perspectives. The seminar have improve knowlegde among participant and will benefits to them in facing their future working enviroments.

The Workplace and Title Seven Essay -- essays research papers

The Workplace and Title VII The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was the catalyst in abolishing the separate but equal policies that had been a mainstay in our society. Though racial discrimination was the initial focal point, its enactment affected every race. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibits discrimination in housing, education, employment, public accommodations and the receipt of federal funds based on certain discrimination factors such as race, color, national origin, sex, disability, age or religion. Title VII is the employment segment of the Civil Rights Act and is considered one of the most important aspects of legislation that has helped define the employment law practices in this country. Prior to Title VII, an employer could hire and fire an employee for any given reason. Title VII prohibits discrimination in hiring, firing, training, promotion, discipline or other workplace decisions. (Bennett-Alexander-Hartman, Fourth Edition, pp 85) Though it applies to everyone, its enactment was especially signifi cant to women and minorities, who until its passage had limited recourse in harassment based discriminations in the workplace.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) is the federal agency that enforces the federal laws, policies and regulations as it relates to employment discrimination. Over the course of years, Title VII has been amended to reinforce its prohibitions to include pregnancy as a type of gender discrimination, jury trials, compensatory damage and punitive damages. Its amendments have also strengthened the enforcement policy of the EEOC. An employer and employee need to be aware of those areas that are and are not covered by Title VII. It applies to employers, unions, joint labor and management committees as well as employment agencies whose functions include referral and training decisions among others. It applies to all private, federal, state and local governments who employ 15 employees or more. An employer with less than 15 employees is not required to comply with the guidelines set by Title VII. Title VII covers all levels and types of employees. In 1991, t he act was further extended to include United States (U.S.) citizens who are employed outside of the U.S. for American employers. Non U.S. citizens are also protected as long as they are employed in the U.S. Title VII however, does not a... ...overlooked in the workplace. Title VII has changed the pre-employment process in that the interviewer must be careful in the questions that are posed to the interviewee. The interviewer should not ask questions that can be deemed discriminatory. A rule of thumb is to limit questions that have to do with a person’s private life. As an employer, it must be made clear that discrimination will not be tolerated in the workplace. Employers and employees need to become familiar with what constitutes discrimination. Employees need to be informed of the employer’s position as it relates to workplace discrimination. An employer should adopt policies that address this issue in the form of employee handbooks and/or in house training for all employee levels, including what steps will be taken for violations. If the employer and employee work together to prevent these forms of discretions, it can help curtail some of the litigiousness surrounding this issue. References Anheuser-Busch, Inc., v. Missouri Com’n on Human Rights, 682 S.W.2d 828 (Mo.App. E.D. 1984) Bennett-Alexander-Hartman, Employment Law for Business, 4th Edition, 85, 95, 97, Griggs v. Duke Power, 401 U.S. 424 (1971).

Critically evaluate Samuel Huntington’s claims in “The Clash of Civilizations?” Essay

The abrupt end of the Cold War meant that the bipolar model of thinking which had dominated the sphere of World Politics for decades became obsolete. This new phase led to a renewal in thinking in the study of International Relations dubbed â€Å"the hundred schools of thought† which led to a wide spectrum of visions about the uncertain future of world affairs. One of the more prominent visions was the late Professor Samuel Huntington’s â€Å"Clash of Civilizations? † published in a 1993 Foreign Affairs article, where he predicted a growing pattern of conflict based on differences in cultural, religious and historical identity of entities he labelled civilizations instead of the ideological differences of the Cold War Era. Huntington’s thesis was a Realist response to Fukuyama’s 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man. Fukuyama argued that the post-1991 world was left with no viable ideological alternative to liberal democracy and the free market economy predicting a new era of global consensus on democracy, justice, human rights and cooperation. ‘The nation will continue to be a central pole of identification, even if more and more nations come to share common economic and political forms of organization. ‘i Huntington’s premise was that ‘The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain as the most powerful actors in world affairs but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. ‘ii The controversial nature of Huntington’s thesis ensured the stern critique by some of his fellow academics for reasons including oversimplification, neglecting contradicting factors and inaccurate predictions. The tragedy of 9/11 and the events that followed revived the confidence in his thesis by his supporters who saw this as the conformation of Huntington’s predictions notably the inconsolable clash between Islam and the West. Huntington begins by describing the historical evolution of the nature of conflicts in the Western World; from the competition between monarchs and emperors for territorial and mercantile expansion leading to the emergence of nation states beginning with the French Revolution, to the rise of ideological conflict after the Bolshevik Revolutioniii. His Eurocentric bias is clear early as he quotes and perpetuates an idea put forward before by William Lind that these were primarily ‘Western Civil Wars’. Labelling World War II, the deadliest military conflict in history which involved the majority of the world’s nations, as such greatly diminishes the involvement and sacrifices made by people across the world. Notably the Soviet Union which was mainly composed of nations Huntington would regard as part of a Slavic-Orthodox civilization sustained the highest amount of casualties totalling at around twenty-seven millioniv. Later in the paragraph, Huntington writes ‘peoples and governments of non-Western civilizations no longer remain the objects of history as targets of Western colonialism but join the West as movers of history’ as if to suggest that events occurring in non-western parts of the world somehow do not constitute as history if they don’t involve or have a felt effect upon Western society. Although the leadership of the West in fields such as science, technology and engineering for the larger part in recent centuries is indisputable; Jewish philosophy, Hindu mathematics, Muslim astronomy and engineering contributed significantly to the foundations of what we know today and this shouldn’t be undermined. The sharing and borrowing of ideas between the different corners of the world through the millennia’s that’s still going on today suggests a long-term cooperation instead of a clash of civilizations in our common pursuit of knowledge. According to Huntington a civilization is ‘ the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity’v. He divides the world’s population into seven civilizations as well as hinting at the possibility of a Caribbean and an African civilization; Africa being indeed a continent known for its vast diversity of cultures and traditionsvi. He defines a civilization by what he calls objective elements such as language, history and primarily religion as well as by the subjective self-identification of people. Huntington argues the onset of globalization has led to increased levels of interaction between peoples of different civilizations, which in turn intensifies civilization consciousness and brings to the forefront their cultural differences which unlike ideological and political differences are fundamental and much less mutable and hence less easily compromised. It’s clear that people instinctively identify themselves closely to others who share common traditions, customs and history; I hold the belief however that Huntington downplays the penetration of globalization and focuses on one aspect of its possible consequences. It’s not the differences that drive cultural conflict between peoples; it’s the lack of understanding which in turn creates prejudices and fears. The increased interactions between peoples have led to a wider acceptance of and fascination with other cultures, helping us understand why foreign societies live the way they do. Huntington argues: ‘†¦Russians cannot become Estonians and Azeri’s cannot become Armenian’vii. An Estonian living in Russia will absorb aspects of Russian culture depending on one’s willingness, length of stay and the extent to which one feels alienated or accepted by Russian society. Thus the objective elements invoked are not convincingly definitive in determining one’s identity; an Englishman may choose to convert to Islam while a Chinese citizen in Shanghai may choose to learn French as a pastime. Globalization in itself has penetrated the long-standing limitations in global trade of the past; politicians ever increasingly have to consider the global implications of domestic policy. More than ever national states around the world are dependent upon each other; the United States Demands Chinese goods while China needs the US to buy its goods. Huntington ascribes ideas such as constitutionalism, human rights, the rule of law, free markets and democracy as Western; unable to gain a foothold in other civilizations. He writes: ‘Modern democratic government originated in the West. When it has developed in non-western societies it has usually been the product of the western colonialism or imposition’viii. suggesting that somehow peoples of other civilizations may not be able to sustain or see the benefits of a form of democratic governance. The people of India would point out that democratic government was formed in their country despite, not because of the Westix. Today more than two-thirds of the world’s governments operate in some form of democracy, which reaffirms the idea that democracy is a universal value, contradicting Huntington’s view of its general Western exclusivity. If asked, most Middle-Easterners would prefer the idea of a democratic to authoritarian governancex; the limitation of democratic development in the region however is a product of the unstable and incompatible political landscape rather than the irreconcilability of the culture. Defining the religious aspects of the Western Civilization, Huntington justifies the grouping of Protestant and Catholic Christians into a single entity by emphasizing shared experiences in European history such as the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution which in turn separates them from the Orthodox Christians beyond Central Europexi. Although it is evident that the closer proximity of those events has influenced Protestants and Catholics more than their Orthodox counterparts, the closer resemblance of Catholic and Orthodox practices and beliefs as opposed to Protestants is however neglected. Huntington consistently appeals to religion as the primary source of cultural identity, rightly so, to a Christian the creeds of their religion have a profound influence on their world view and thus how they would identify themselves. When speaking of the Islamic civilization however, Huntington doesn’t seem to make the effort to differentiate between the major denominations of Shia, Sunni and Sufism which have so strongly influenced the historical and especially current political landscape of the Middle-East. In a passionate attempt to warn his fellow Americans of the potential threats that their country may face in the post-Cold War environment, Huntington essentially perpetuated ideas that were dangerous and self-fulfilling. The existence of a Confucian-Islamic connection that may threaten the West described by Huntingtonxii is yet to be empirically verified, as the Chinese and US economies remain inter-linked and Barrack Obama moves towards a policy of dialogue in the Middle-East. Given the history of US foreign policy, legislators would have found Huntington’s paradigm easy to understand and convenient in terms of implementation. A worldview of distrust towards foreign powers that demands the maintaining of military superiority in the name of security panders to the powerful military industrial complex in the US. In order to maintain peace, global stability and have any hopes of dealing with transnational issues such as global warming, policy makers should regard all nations as members of the world community and work closer with international organizations such as the UN and WTO in establishing universal laws. The alienation and coercion of other governments will indeed create an atmosphere of antagonism and hostility.

Night by Elie Wiesel Essay

Symbolism is a powerful way for authors to convey a message or feeling to a reader. This idea of symbolism is heavily used by Lie Wishes in his account of the holocaust, Night. He uses concepts such as night time, faith, suffering and family to send a significant message to his readers. Symbolism is not only an important concept in literature but also in life. Wishes stresses the importance of remembrance and education through the symbolism in his memoir. Night is a heavily used concept used by Wishes. Not only is it the title of the book but it carries an underlying implication.The general emotions evoked by the notion of night are loneliness, vulnerability and sometimes even fear. As children and very often even as adults, night and darkness create a sense of fear within us. It often causes people to feel alone and enclosed. Associated with night is darkness. A connotation of this is that night blinds you with its darkness. These Ideas can be applied to the emotions felt by victims of the holocaust. To those people it felt like the end. Many of these people did things that they wouldn't have normally done because of fear, of being blinded.Wishes discusses how much concentration camp ad changed him. After seeing his father hit by a Gypsy Wishes states â€Å"l stood petrified. What had happened to me? My father had Just been struck, In front of me, and I had not even blinked. I had watched and kept silent. Only yesterday, I would have dug my nails into this criminal's skin. Had I changed that much? So fast? â€Å". Prisoners had lost faith in life and In their religion. To them It was a dark and lonely hell that they would never escape. Perhaps one of the most paramount symbols used Is that of the â€Å"angelic pile†.Three prisoners where brought In chains, a child being one. The two older adults died with ease as the gallows were placed around their neck but the child had a significantly harder time, as he struggled between life and death. This was an unshakable experience for the Jewish people forced to observe this cruel punishment. Although sad, this event has great meaning to the story. The â€Å"angelic pile† symbolizes the struggle of all Jewish people during the holocaust. The struggle they all faced day In and day out between life and death. Prisoners watching this struggle asked where God had gone. Behind me, I heard the same man asking: ‘For god's sake, where Is God? And from within me, I heard a voice answer: Where He Is? This Is where- hanging here from this gallows†¦ â€Å". The young child dying symbolized that God had died along with him; this horrific event had caused people to lose their faith In God. Wishes and thousands of prisoners Like him had lost their faith last night, for many It would never return. Ell Wishes challenges our emotions with his personal account of the holocaust. Night and the Angelic Pile are only two of the many powerful symbols used to Invoke these potent emotions.Wish es encourages all of mankind to remember what appended In those horrifying years rather than to turn a blind eye. HIS compelling memoir. Connotation of this is that night blinds you with its darkness. These ideas can be petrified. What had happened to me? My father had Just been struck, in front of me, Prisoners had lost faith in life and in their religion. To them it was a dark and lonely Perhaps one of the most paramount symbols used is that of the â€Å"angelic pile†. Three prisoners where brought in chains, a child being one. The two older adults they all faced day in and day out between life and death.Prisoners watching this odd's sake, where is God? And from within me, I heard a voice answer: Where He is? This is where- hanging here from this gallows†¦ â€Å". The young child dying symbolized faith in God. Wishes and thousands of prisoners like him had lost their faith last night, for many it would never return. Lie Wishes challenges our emotions with his personal account of the holocaust. Invoke these potent emotions. Wishes encourages all of mankind to remember what happened in those horrifying years rather than to turn a blind eye. His compelling and moving symbolism supplicates education and remembrance in a truly chilling